Over at my
blog I have a very long post that analyzes the effectiveness of the Iraqi resistance in accomplishing their military and political goals. I will outline the basic points here:
- The guerillas have the initiative, and they know how to use it.
- The resistance has done an effective job intimidating other countries from sending foreign troops to Iraq.
- The resistance is still primarily Sunni and the Shi'ite support is currently discredited by Sadr's rashness. This is a positive because it offers the United States some strategic depth and reasonably quiet areas in which to maneuver.
- The resistance is being extremely effective in targeting collaborators. I expect an epidemic of the Blue Flu among the Iraqi police force in the near future because the United States can not guarantee their safety.
- If they can get ahold of both modern SAMS and training to use them correctly, the US is screwed as it will deny the Army the use of helicopters to bail foot and vehicle patrols out of ambushes and sticky situations.