PPP. 6/12-13. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (4/1-5 results)
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 31 (33)
Mark Kirk (R) 30 (37)
LeAlan Jones (G) 14 (-)
Undecided 24 (30)
That's a net nine-point swing in Giannoulias' direction in the last couple of months, likely a result of Mark Kirk's pathological lying.
The recent controversy regarding statements Kirk has made about his military service seems to be taking a large toll on him. Only 10% of voters in the state think Kirk has been truthful about his military service while 45% think he has lied and 45% are unsure. The good news for Kirk is that only 22% of voters say they've been following the story very closely, because among those folks Giannoulias has a 39-28 lead. That may be a short lived saving grace for Kirk though since Democrats will make sure voters are very familiar with the story by the fall.
And will a Green candidate really get 14 percent and potentially play spoiler? I wouldn't bet on it.
Check out the favorability numbers:
Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure
Giannoulias: 23/31/45 (21/28/51)
Kirk: 23/31/46 (24/23/53)
Again, terrible numbers for Kirk. Once upon a time, his game plan was to repeat "Giannoulias: mobster banker" over and over and over and over again. Now that he has been exposed as a modern-day Walter Mitty, his own credibility is in the tank, and his incessantly negative message has been neutered.
So what does he have left? Talk about actual issues?
There was a reason for his perpetually negative tactics -- if this race became about the issues in Blue Illinois, he didn't stand a chance. Now, it doesn't look like he has much of a choice.