Over the last few weeks, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has held a series of meetings to try to find 60 votes for a climate bill. How's he doing? Depends on who he asks. If he listens to Jay Rockefeller (D-Coal), he should forget about everything except chasing the chimera of clean coal (my! what a coincidence!). If he listens to concern trolls Dianne Feinstein (D-Wildfires), Claire McCaskill (D-Senate Is Hard!), or Ben Nelson (D-Dust Bowl), there's no point in trying.
Or is there? Analysis hazy, ask again later below the fold.
Last Thursday's meeting was devoted to comparing three major bills: ACELA, the E&NR energy-only bill; APA, the Kerry-Lieberman climate bill; and CLEAR, the cap-and-dividend climate bill. The senators reviewed a memo comparing 3 bills (14 pg pdf) but failed to reach agreement. The meeting could be summarized as the Senate's realization that it doesn't have the votes for a cap-and-trade system. Reid's bland, official statement:
Reid said he would work with committee leaders to come up with a bill that sets "reasonable goals with a reasonable timeframe" and will "overcome whatever hurdles opponents put in our way." But he would not say whether that bill would include a price on carbon.
They'll be meeting again next week. The public statements and Senators invited to the meeting give some sense of what's on the table. From two stories in the Wall Street Journal and Politico, about a dozen Senators have been invited to meet with President Obama.
* Rahm Emanuel makes a point of welcoming a "utility only" carbon cap, signaling that he wants Lindsey Graham (R-Hissyfit) back in the fold
* Lamar Alexander (R-Tennukessee) has been invited. Alexander is possibly the leading Senate voice on nuclear power expansion; he's introduced a bill to put 100 nuclear power plants online.
* Kerry and Lieberman will attend.
* So will Richard Lugar (R-Indy), author of the "practical" energy-only bill I've derided as insufficient, S.3464.
* Jeff Bingaman (D-Los Alamos), author of the equally horrible, if not worse ACELA energy-only bill, S.1462, will attend.
* Susan Collins (R-Boiled Lobsters), cosponsor of CLEAR, has been invited. Pssst! Susan! Those delicious crustaceans adorning your state's license plate are under attack from climate change. Energy-only bills won't prevent thousands of lobstermen from losing their jobs.
* Lisa Murkowski (R-Baked Alaska) will attend. She cosponsored S.3464, authored the failed Murky Air Act, and represents the state that arguably has the most to lose. Apparently the White House considers her vote still in play. That's bad news for opponents of offshore oil.
* Barbara Boxer (D-Wildfires) will be a lone voice for sanity.
* Debbie Stabenow (D-Rust Belt) is also on the list. Stabenow hasn't been a leader on climate. However, she's cosigned a number of letters expressing midwest Democrats' regional concerns (e.g., tariffs, dependence on coal, dislike of state efforts to curb greenhouse gases beyond federal minimums), so I surmise that she's a proxy for that group.
Who won't attend? A bold new crop of Senators elected in 2006-08 who demand that carbon limits be included in any bill. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), who's introduced a good energy-only bill to reduce our dependence on oil, has been a true leader but is being snubbed. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Mark Udall (D-CO) hint that they'll oppose any bill without a cap on carbon, and they're not invited.
The meeting has all the hallmarks of a Rahm Emanuel "find small victories" approach that defined his attitude toward healthcare. It's a darn shame. Democrats are unapologetically pushing "I apologize" comments by Rep. Smokey Joe Barton (R-Andarko Petroleum) in campaigning. They could cobble together a BP-free bill (i.e., one without offshore drilling expansion, without tax subsidies to oil, and one free of the taint of Big Oil), obtain votes of a few moderate Republicans, and paint the rest of the GO(B)P as owned by Big Oil. Instead, Emanuel is open to a smaller bill, if not actively seeking that smaller energy-only bill, and a far-reaching bill is being cobbled together by only some of our duly elected representatives.