Both Republicans and (some) Democrats are hoping these numbers are outliers.
Florida Chamber of Commerce. 6/9-13. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Marco Rubio (R) 31
Charlie Crist (I) 42
Kendrick Meek (D) 14
There are no trend lines, so it's impossible to determine trendlines based on this poll. But it certainly is the first poll of any stripe to show Crist with a double-digit lead. If nothing else, his strategy of becoming the de facto Democratic candidate is paying early dividends.
Interestingly:
"Interestingly, our poll also shows immigration and property taxes to be in the top three issues concerning Floridians for the first time in several years," said Marian Johnson, executive vice president of political operations for the chamber. "Though the economy and job creation will certainly be weighing heavily on voters' minds going into the 2010 election cycle, education and the oil spill in the gulf are now two of the most important issues to voters and will become increasingly important on a statewide level."
Property taxes are a state issue, and will play out in the governor's race (where the two potential GOP candidates lead thanks to the 15 percent Lawton Chiles III is pulling in as a spoiler independent). The economy is the economy. That one will play out everywhere, and will be dependent on Democrats' ability to start taking job creation seriously, instead of obsessing over a deficit few non-teabaggers will care about in these tough economic times.
Immigration? Comprehensive reform remains popular with all Americans, regardless of political stripes. Rubio can't decide whether he's for tougher immigration, a la SB 1070 in Arizona, or against it. And offshore drilling? Rubio is on the outs on that one.
"In the long term, offshore drilling has to be part of our overall energy strategy," Rubio said. "Other countries are going to do it, and if they have an accident, that's going to impact [the U.S.] just the same." [...]
Rubio said he supports drilling "so long as it can be done safely," citing the "severe economic costs" of ending drilling.
Rubio also said he opposes congressional action to prevent BP from paying dividends.
"I've never been in favor of interfering in the markets," he said.
The Florida reality:
In the wake of the Gulf oil spill, Florida voters oppose 51 - 42 percent increasing the amount of offshore oil drilling, a 48-point swing from the 66 - 27 percent support for drilling in an April 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University.
Perhaps it's not too hard to see why Rubio might be falling behind.