Its always easier to assess the debates the next day. That's when you can figure out what moments or aspects of the debate really stood out and have the potential to make an impact. I think that's what happened with Gore. The more time went by, the less people remembered the details of the debate ... which were pretty arcane for most folks ... and all they remembered was the sighing.
So, here are the things that I think will tend to stick out for Kerry (in order of importance)
1. More. Of. The. Same.
Brilliant, absolutely brilliant. This is very hard for Bush to counter. It reminds voters ... if you vote for Bush, you have absolutely no reason to think things will improve. And, it contrasts nicely with Kerry's four point plan (vs. four word plan).
2. He clearly and compellingly stated his position on Iraq (which, let's face it, he has had trouble with). He only started the job, but if he keeps to the same words as he used in the debate, he is going to undo a lot of the damage on this issue:
"Saddam was a grave threat. There was a right way and a wrong way to disarm him. We chose the wrong way. We rushed into war without enough allies and without a plan to win the peace. Now we're in and we must win. Here is my four point plan. I can win the war. He can't." Nice and simple ... and totally consistent with what he has said before ... but more succinct and compelling.
- Osama in Tora Bora. Kerry was devastating on this: extremely forceful, clear and articulate. I'm not sure if it connected with most people (I think a lot of people probably thought, hey, this can't be true ... I would have heard much more about it ... (well, yeah, you would have thought so)), but I suspect it connected with some. Very interesting that Bush chose not to challenge Kerry on this point.
- Demeanor. Kerry was not only presidential, he was "in command." In command of the issues, of the debate agenda, and of himself. He showed passion without being emotional. Bush talked about being resolute. Kerry was resolute. Bush was defensive, angry, pouty, and tired.
- The unscripted moment. I absolutely loved the whole exchange over the Bush daughters and Kerry daughters. Lehrer asked about character issues. Bush clearly didn't have a scripted answer, so he started listing nice things he could say about Kerry. He praised Kerry's service, praised Kerry's daughters, etc. It was a very good moment for Bush given that he was clearly winging it. Then Kerry spoke. He picked up on Bush's comments about the difficulties of the campaign trail and the effect on families ... it was straight from the heart and very good. He then praised Bush's daughters, at which point Bush says "I should put them on a leash." Ouch! Not the way to go after the women's vote. Then, Kerry smiles and says, "Well, I've learned not to do that." Beautiful! In a few words, Kerry conveys that he can think on his feet, that he is very human, that he is an engaged dad, and that he's learned some lessons along the way about how to be a good parent. Wow! Kerry then, brilliantly goes on to praise Laura Bush effusively, thereby totally wiping out any effect of the first lady likability gap. The subtext was, our wives are such a non-issue that in the middle of the debate, I can heap praise on Laura Bush. (And, oh by the way Karl Rove, if you go after THK in a serious way, rest assured we will be drawing a contrast between my graciousness and the other side's total lack of it).
ONE POINT FOR BUSH. I thought he was reasonably effective in saying, "How can you lead this war when you've called it a grand diversion and the wrong war, at the wrong time, in the wrong place." I thought Kerry rebutted this somewhat effectively. But, I think it gives Bush a decent theme to run with.
Overall, huge win for Kerry. No knockout blows, but a great performance that takes the race from a very slight lean to Bush to a slight lean to Kerry (IMHO). And Kerry did this in the debate topic where Bush had the advantage. WE WILL WIN.