What's the Tea Party really mean for American politics? GOP losses, most likely.
In a new ABC/WaPo poll, it's notable that
The poll also finds growing disapproval of the "tea party" movement, with half the population now expressing an unfavorable impression of the loosely aligned protest campaign that has shaken up politics this year.
But there's more to it than that.
In a memo from the Democratic Governors Association, exec director Nathan Daschle argues ("convincingly", says Politico) that in key races, Republicans are being forced to run to the right, positioning themselves poorly for the general in November. From the DGA memo:
What we’ve learned in this race for the base is that Meg Whitman [CA] really likes a border fence and insider stock deals at Goldman Sachs, that Terry Branstad [IA] needs Sarah Palin to burnish his conservative cred, and that Brian Sandoval [NV] is willing to alienate Latinos in his effort to appeal to conservatives and unglue himself from the largest tax increase in Nevada history.
The truth is, the GOP candidates on the ballot today all should have had cakewalks to their nominations. Instead, the "Tea Party effect" has forced the leading GOP candidates to spend countless millions to fend off primary opponents, pushed them to embrace failed Republican policies and – maybe most importantly – has led them to lurch to the far right in states where moderation is key to winning independents.
ME, SC and SD are included. Take Maine, for example, home of so-called moderate Republicans no more:
As Mike Tipping at Maine Politics describes the platform Daschle notes: "The official platform for the Republican Party of Maine is now a mix of right-wing fringe policies, libertarian buzzwords and outright conspiracy theories." Republicans’ platform praises the Tea Party movement, calls global warming a "myth," and demands the elimination of the U.S. Department of Education.
The DGA obviously feels good about some of these races, but the larger message should not be lost. There's a civil war within the Republican Party, and establishment Republicans are losing. True believers thought that was good for the party in 1964, and even now many of them think the outcome then was just fine (since it led to a more conservative GOP despite the '64 election results.)
But if you're not a true believer (and most people aren't, nor do they think Sarah Palin is qualified to be President, nor do they think the GOP as it stands today is offering solutions - 6 of 10 disapprove of congressional GOP policy), this is going to seriously harm Republican chances in the fall, and do significant damage moving forward.
Don't believe it? Ask Latinos what they think of AZ, and Californians what they think of Pete Wilson. Oh, wait - isn't that Meg Whitman's campaign co-chairman?
Wilson, who served as the state's top executive from 1991 to 1999, was a champion of Proposition 187, a controversial immigration measure barring illegal immigrants from receiving any public services. The measure played a large role in Wilson's victorious re-election effort -- and, even though it was later ruled by a federal judge to be unconstitutional, has also caused deep and lasting damage to the Republican Party's relationship with Latinos.
(For a taste of the tenor of the 1994 campaign, check out Wilson's "Border Crossing" ad, which shows grainy black-and-white footage of a border crossing while a narrator ominously intones, "They keep coming").
Remember, outside of the Tea Party, immigration reform is still hugely popular. And I don't see a groundswell to eliminate the Department of Education or demand Obama show his birth certificate, either.
And all of that is without even mentioning Rand Paul.