As we have now put half of 2010 into the rearview mirror, let's kick off the Wrap tonight with a round of applause for this community. We started a campaign to get new donors to support the quintet of Orange to Blue candidates just over three days ago. Our initial goal was modest: fifty new supporters for each of our five candidates. Instead, the number of new supporters ranged anywhere from 193 to 225 new participants per candidate.
As always, you folks are the best. On with the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
AZ-Sen: Video trips up the incumbent this time in GOP primary
No...it is nowhere near as entertaining as the JD Hayworth infomercials, but video has surfaced that should nonetheless prove distressing for Republican incumbent John McCain in his competitive primary against Hayworth. The Hayworth campaign is gleefully circulating a video of John McCain with disgraced former fundraiser Scott Rothstein, who was sentenced to 50 years in prison for running a billion-dollar Ponzi scheme. McCain's crew had long claimed that McCain didn't know Rothstein, so the presentation of the two of them chatting it up at fundraisers is a bit of a shot. Team McCain countered with a pretty awesome retort, arguing that (a) McCain could not possibly know every person he met at every fundraiser in his presidential bid and (b) even if he did, Rothstein hadn't been in legal trouble then. Then they invoked Miss Cleo. I kid you not.
FL-Sen: Greer trial to hang over Crist's head on Election Eve?
Charlie Crist has had a solid few weeks, as polls have shown him moving into an unambiguous lead in his Independent bid for the U.S. Senate. But he got a little bit of bad news today, as the trial of his former handpicked state party chairman, Jim Greer, was scheduled for October. The trial is set to begin within two weeks of Election Day.
WA-Sen: SUSA poll gives Murray single digit lead in re-elect bid
A new poll out today from SurveyUSA (and one which utilizes the unique all-party primary balloting endemic to the Evergreen State) gives incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray a slight edge over leading GOP challenger Dino Rossi. Murray leads Rossi 37-33 in the poll. In a sign of how much the open primary system benefits Rossi in the face of more teabaggery competition, right-wing insurgent candidate Clint Didier trails badly, limping along at 5% of the vote. The other dozen candidates split 6% of the vote.
WI-Sen: It's Johnson's nomination to lose, according to PPP
Following up on their general election polling earlier in the week, the crew over at PPP also poll the potentially competitive Republican primary, only to find that it's not that competitive, after all. Businessman Ron Johnson has swamped his primary rival, Dave Westlake, despite Westlake having been in the race considerably longer. Johnson holds a lead of thirty eight points (49-11), who despite having been in the race for months is still an unknown to 80% of primary voters.
THE MONEY CHASE: Very early numbers point to big Republican hauls
This should be no small cause for concern in Democratic Senate circles: a trio GOP Senate campaigns reported sizeable fundraising hauls for the second quarter (April 1-June 30). The horrible news cycles for Mark Kirk (IL) did not hurt his bank book, as he banked over $2.3 million. Both Rand Paul (KY) and David Vitter (LA) came in at about half of Kirk's total, but still banked over a million dollars each for the quarter.
THE U.S. HOUSE
ND-AL: Rick Berg reports monster fundraising quarter
If those Rasmussen polls showing longtime Democratic incumbent Earl Pomeroy in grave danger have not raised fears among Dems (consider the source, after all), this ought to make them a bit more concerned. Berg logged more than a half-million dollars for the quarter, and is reporting that he still has three-quarters of a million dollars on hand.
NH-02: Orange to Blue contender counts cash quickly, and is happy
Great news out early today from the campaign of one of our Orange to Blue candidates: New Hampshire's Ann McLane Kuster. Kuster, who challenges Lieber-Dem Katrina Swett in the Democratic primary and will likely face Charlie Bass in the general, reported a quarterly take of just over $310,000 during the Spring. That puts her over a million dollars for the cycle.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
FL-Gov: Anti-gay rhetoric goes from offensive to stupid in GOP race
Ben Smith of Politico has a real classic here. For those who didn't know, the campaign of upstart GOP right-winger Rick Scott has been lambasting Florida AG and gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum for getting endorsed by...of all people...Rudy Giuliani. Once the patron saint of 9/11 in campaign circles, you'll be interested to know that Rudy G. is now apparently the patron saint of the "pro-abortion" and "pro-homosexual" communities.
Instead of laughing off Scott's blast, McCollum decided to return fire, and he did with almost awe-inspiring stupidity. He nailed Scott for being an investor in a Latino social networking site (Que Pasa), which happens to have gay groups among its numbers. Team McCollum decided to limn this as Scott's financial support of a "gay dating site." As Ben Smith pointed out to the staffers flogging that story, however, even the most homophobic politicos have not expressed an interest in legal prohibition of gay dating.
NM-Gov: Martinez in potential hot water over email flap?
Depending on your perspective, I imagine, this could be a potential hurdle for Republican nominee Susana Martinez in the Land of Enchantment. Martinez had to reprimand one of her staffers for distributing a "joke" via email which revolved around shooting immigrants in the head. The question, of course, is why such an offensive email (which went after people of Arabic as well as Mexican heritage) did not merit something a bit firmer than the equivalent of the sternly-worded letter. Her deputy is trying to give Martinez political cover, lamely explaining that a reprimand could cover a lot of ground (although, it would seem, neither suspension nor firing, both of would seem to be appropriate under the circumstances).
OR-Gov: Republican pollsters see general election dogfight
The newly prolific crew over at Magellan Research (classified by Pollster and elsewhere as a Republican pollster) have taken a look at the governor's race in Oregon, and they see the same coin flip as just about everyone else. They have Republican Chris Dudley barely ahead of former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber (41-40). They also have President Obama looking far worse here (47/44 approval spread) than he did twenty months ago, when he won the state by sixteen points.
RI-Gov: Caprio, Chafee pace fundraising in second quarter
New numbers are out on the fundraising front for most of the players in the Rhode Island Governor's race, and Democratic state treasurer Frank Caprio is lapping the field. Caprio has raised a total of over $320K, which more than doubles up Indie candidate Lincoln Chafee (the former GOP U.S. Senator), who raised about $154K for the quarter. Only Democrat Patrick Lynch and Republican John Robataille did not turn over their cards yet.
WI-Gov: PPP has Scott Walker out to huge lead in GOP primary
If you buy the latest numbers from PPP in Wisconsin, then the once-considered competitive primary between Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Congressman/'98 Senate candidate Mark Neumann is a non-starter. PPP has Walker well out in front, pulling down 58% of the vote to just 19% of the vote for Neumann. The perception of Walker as the more conservative candidate is helping him immeasurably, and the fact he hails from one of the population centers in the state probably doesn't hurt, either.
WY-Gov: Celebrity endorsement of the day
Obviously, Wyoming Republicans have a lot to consider, now that one of their resident celebrities has jumped off of the fence and offered his two cents on the state's gubernatorial race. Clearly, the campaign of state auditor Rita Meyer is still popping champagne over the news that...yes...they have earned the nod of none other than Wilford Brimley. Brimley, counterexample #1023 to the canard that Hollywood is exclusively Democratic, also endorsed John McCain in 2008.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras is a little quiet today, with only a pair of new (and slightly predictable) numbers. I guess making shit up about drug mules and beheaded bodies is a political boon in Arizona, at least if you buy stock in Ras' latest Arizona poll. Also, they poll Toomey-Sestak. Guess who's winning?
AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 35%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 45%, Joe Sestak (D) 39%