Wednesday (and a little Tuesday) punditry.
Nate Silver:
The usual rule of thumb is that publicly-released internal polls have a lean of about 5 points, so that if her campaign released a poll showing Lincoln down by 9 points, that means she's really down by 14. But sometimes the bias in an internal poll is considerably more than 5 points, depending on the pollster, the candidate, and the circumstances of the race. In this case, the Lincoln campaign seems desperate to fend off the narrative that her campaign is dead in the water and doesn't deserve fundraising or activist attention, and so the incentive to put out a favorable poll might be especially strong.
They're desperate to fight off this narrative because it's absolutely true. In a cycle where we have so many authentically competitive Senate races, it would be absurd for national Democrats to spend more than a pittance on her.
Mary Brown, David Willis and Arthur Jaffe:
In March, America made history by passing the Affordable Care Act. As the summer heats up, so does the ongoing debate around the country about what the new health reform law actually means for all Americans.
Not everyone is convinced that the law is good for the country. But there is one constituency group that clearly came out as winners in the fight, one group that -- although literally necessary for the future survival of our country -- can't speak up for itself and often is ignored. They are our nation's most important, yet most vulnerable resource: our children.
Chris Cillizza:
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R) announcement that he will vote in favor of Elena Kagan's nomination to the Supreme Court is likely to further incite conservatives already unhappy with him and, according to close observers of the state's politics, ensures he will face a serious primary challenge in 2014.
"I think there's a good reason for a conservative to vote yes," Graham said this morning.
Graham's apostasy on Kagan comes after other high profile breaks with conservatives in his state (and nationally) over climate change and immigration reform and will likely make him a central target of those tea party Republicans who helped oust Utah Sen. Bob Bennett in his bid for renomination earlier this year.
Bennett had to get through a caucus, very different than a primary, it's not like his is the 60th vote and 2014 is a long way away. But teabaggers like to make loud noises.
LA Times:
A third Los Angeles County infant has died of whooping cough, public health officials announced Tuesday.
The confirmation of the death -- the sixth pertussis-related death this year in the state -- comes a day after the California Department of Public Health expanded criteria for those who should be vaccinated against the highly contagious disease amid what is shaping up to be the worst outbreak in 50 years.
Vaccines save lives, a topic I'm discussing at Netroots Nation on Thursday morning.
Eugene Robinson:
That was quick. We now have proof the NAACP was right.
When the nation's leading civil rights organization passed a resolution condemning displays of racism by Tea Party activists, leaders of the movement reacted with umbrage so thick you could cut it with a knife -- then demonstrated that the NAACP's allegation was entirely justified...
And if the Republican Party is going to try to harness the Tea Party's passion on behalf of GOP candidates, responsible leaders need to make clear that racism will not be tolerated. Yet Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell declined to talk about the NAACP flap when asked about it Sunday, and Sen. John Cornyn volunteered that accusing the Tea Party of racism is "slanderous."
It's not slander if it's the truth, senator. No one can deny that some fraction of the Tea Party's considerable energy is generated by racism. Excommunicating Mark Williams was a start to disowning and discarding this element -- but just a start.
Michael Lind:
The recent reforms in healthcare and financial regulation are too market-oriented for most liberals and too utility-oriented for most free-market conservatives. But this does not imply that each side is equally dogmatic. The center-left is much more flexible and open-minded.
For example, when the conditions that made a sector suitable for treatment as a utility change, liberals do not necessarily object to deregulation. As long as telephony was based on wires, regulated telephone monopolies like AT&T made sense. When technology, in the form of wireless telephony, made a competitive market in that industry possible, few liberals objected to deregulation.