With both the Governor and the A.G. now on board with the idea of a 2010 special election to replace the late Democratic Senator Robert Byrd, said election now seems to be a formality.
It also seems fairly well predestined that Governor Manchin will be the consensus choice to be the Democratic nominee for any Senate election that will take place.
Less clear, however, is the identity of the Republican challenger to a prospective Manchin candidacy. The name that is most often cited is the sole federal officeholder in the state: the Congresswoman for the 2nd district, Shelley Moore Capito. Capito, after all, has held office in the district since replacing Democrat Bob Wise in 2000 when he ran successfully for Governor.
But, as Reid Wilson noted yesterday, a Capito candidacy is far from a given:
Capito is the highest-ranking GOP official in the state, and national party strategists have tried to coax her into a bid for statewide office for years. But now that an open Senate seat has come along, few GOPers believe Capito will give up her House seat to pursue a bid against one of the most popular governors in the nation. And even if she can run for both at the same time, the demands might just be too great.
One should also take into account the relative political odds facing the GOP this year, which could also factor into Capito's decision making calculus. While they are not necessarily a betting favorite to earn a majority in either chamber, virtually everyone agrees that the GOP is much more likely to get there in the House than in the Senate.
Therefore, it is entirely plausible that Capito would prefer a role in the House (where a majority is possible) than be a backbencher in the Senate minority.
And that's assuming her chances of winning are equal, which they are not. Capito's House opponent (former educator Virginia Lynch Graf) has raised all of $9000 in her election bid, making that race a lock for Capito.
Capito, meanwhile, would be likely be an underdog to Manchin, despite the fact that the electoral terrain for Republican candidates in the Mountaineer State has improved tremendously in the past decade or so.
If she stays out, the GOP is left with second-tier candidates that fall close to the realm of what our friends at Swing State Project would describe as "some guy."
Perhaps the GOP was so emboldened by the Massachusetts special that they felt that they could replicate it anywhere, with anyone. But the bottom line is that Joe Manchin is no Martha Coakley, and if he runs, and Capito doesn't, it is hard to imagine this race being all that competitive.
UPDATE (7:56 AM PT): From the comments (h/t to Scarce), the House of Ras has presumably thrown a bit more cold water on the Capito for Senate boomlet, by releasing a poll showing Manchin with a fourteen-point lead (53-39) over Capito.