The dour mood in the country is picked up in the new NBC/WSJ poll, and it's not reflecting well on either Republicans or Democrats.
Underpinning the gloom: Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the economy has yet to hit bottom, a sharply higher percentage than the 53% who felt that way in January.
The sour national mood appears all-encompassing and is dragging down ratings for the GOP too, suggesting voters above all are disenchanted with the political establishment in Washington. Just 24% express positive feelings about the Republican Party, a new low in the 21-year history of the Journal's survey. Democrats are only slightly more popular, but also near an all-time low.
That's not good news for the incumbent party.
"Even with Republicans having low numbers, they are the opposition party and are going to benefit from people saying, 'We're ticked off and we want a change,"' said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. "The way you vote your discontent is to say you're going to vote Republican."
Mr. Hart said the 2010 contest is being pulled by the sentiment associated with the JetBlue flight attendant who fled his plane via the emergency chute after an altercation with a passenger. Calling it the "JetBlue election," Mr. Hart said: "Everyone's hurling invective and they're all taking the emergency exit."
You can find bright spots, though, suggesting the GOP wave has crested even if the anti-incumbent wave has not.
Voters appear evenly split on which party they hope will control Congress after November. But Republicans retain an advantage among those more likely to turn out. Among those most interested in the election, half favor GOP control and 39% support the Democrats. One positive movement for Democrats: That 11-point gap is down from 21 points in June.
Remember, unenthusiastic votes count —— if you get them to the polls.
As is the case with yesterday's PPP poll and Pew poll, Obama is holding steady:
but this is Congress' problem more than Obama's. Interestingly, Obama gets a 50-38 approve-disapprove on the oil spill aftermath, so the blather about this being Obama's Katrina should be put to rest. The economy? Not so good - he gets a "could be worse" 44-52.
Another interesting highlight is on the question of whether Obama meets or exceeds expectations. In this, he does just about the same as his predecessors (absent a rallying event).
But Congress? They are at 21-72 approve-disapprove, and 28% rate them below average, 32% as "one of the worst".
When people support a D or an R Congress, why do they? For Democrats it's an even split between support Obama and oppose Republicans. Not so for Republicans . Only 35 support the Republican Party (even Republican supporters know the GOP has no ideas), but a whopping 59 want to vote against Democrats and/or Obama.
This guy sums it up pretty well:
"The Republicans don't have a message as to why people should vote for them, but it's pretty clear why you shouldn't vote for the Democrats," said poll respondent Tim Krsak, 33, a lawyer from Indianapolis and independent who has been unemployed since January. "So by default, you have to vote for the other guy."
Here's a helpful summary table of where things stand:
As noted yesterday, there's a disconnect between Obama and Congress, with Congress getting the short end of the stick. If you're running for re-election, you have a few minutes left to convince a skeptical public you have their future in mind (ask Michelle to do the presentation.)
Now, incumbents usually get elected, and party apparatus still matters (see Tuesday's primaries.) And people really, really don't like Republicans. That will mitigate things but it won't save Congress from a rough November.