Speaking in Ohio today, President Obama said that Social Security is not in crisis, and "only modest changes are needed to keep it solvent." But (and there had to be a but):
...[he said] the pension fund "has to be tweaked because the population is getting older" but said Republicans' plans to drastically overhaul the program are wrong.
"Social Security is not in crisis," Obama said. "We're going to have to make some modest adjustments in order to strengthen it."
That "population is getting older" bit is one of the Zombie Social Security lies that has become conventional wisdom. Here's Nancy Altman, in her book about the history of Social Security, The Battle for Social Security: From FDR's Vision To Bush's Gamble:
Related to issues about retirement age are questions about life expectancy. Many people are under the mistaken impression that Americans receive retirement benefits for considerably longer than they did when the program was created. The misconception results from looking at life expectancies from birth, which have changed dramatically because of the medical success achieved in conquering childhood diseases. But those numbers reflect changes in the numbers of those who survive to retirement, not what happens thereafter. The statistics regarding children distort the overall average ....
For Social Security purposes, the correct question is not how many live to age 65, but rather how long those reaching age 65 live thereafter. Here the numbers are not as dramatic. In 1940, men who survived to age 65 had a remaining life expectancy of 12.7 years. Today, a 65 year old man can expect to live not quite three years longer than he might have in 1940, or 15.3 years beyond reaching age 65. For women, the comparable numbers are 14.7 years beyond age 65 in 1940; 19.6 years in 1990. [Emphasis added.]
Life expectancy after age 65 hasn't changed that drastically. What's more, the retirement age has already been adjusted up from 65 "beginning with people born in 1938 or later, that age gradually increases until it reaches 67 for people born after 1959."
Now more of the nation's population is moving into the retirement age cohort as baby-boomers retire, but they're not going to be living that much longer than their parents did. And again, the key is "how long those reaching age 65 live thereafter" because that's the signficant factor for Social Security. Any tweaks the government is considering to the Social Security system need to be based on the actual facts, not the zombie lies.
Altman's book should be required reading for the Catfood Commission, the President and his staff, and every member of Congress.