Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski hasn't been defeated yet, though overtaking Joe Miller's lead is going to be tough for her. So what does she do from here?
First up, she lawyers up.
Sean Cairncross, the general counsel of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is headed to Alaska at the request of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) to help provide guidance to the GOP incumbent who finds herself trailing attorney Joe Miller (R) by roughly 1,600 votes.
Cairncross will spend several days on the ground in Alaska as Murkowski and her campaign prepare for the counting of as many as 16,000 absentee ballots -- a process expected to start next Tuesday and continue through early September.
Committee sources insisted that too much should not be read into Cairncross' presence in Alaska -- only that the NRSC is an incumbent-retention committee and, as such, provides assistance when Senators ask for it.
The NRSC, however, has been in touch with the Miller campaign, so they're hedging their bets. A legal fight honestly doesn't seem terribly likely. Republicans are not going to want to drag a primary fight out very long. They've got to have a name on the ballot soon, and letting it drag out will be potentially damaging to whoever ends up on the ballot. It would also force them to lose a lot of campaign time. With Dems smelling blood in the water on this, they can't spend time in an internal fight.
Presumably, they won't. That leaves Murkowski needing to decide if she goes quietly into the night, or runs third party. She's got to be mulling that now, with her future political career in obvious jeopardy. She could potentially have big business and K street [sub req.] on her side.
Joe Miller may be up by more than 1,600 votes in his battle to become the Republican Senate nominee in Alaska, but he can’t count on K Street’s support for his bid.
Several K Street insiders with Alaska ties said they had never met Miller and instead prefer his opponent, Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
"He’s a total unknown," said one Republican lobbyist who follows Alaska politics. "I have not met anybody who even remotely knows him."
Not that that would necessarily translate into her receiving corporate backing over Miller should she make a third-party run, (Alaska for Murkowski?) but it's possible. So what about her options in a third party run? The Atlantic checked that out.
Gail Fenumiai, director of Alaska's Department of Elections, told me in an email that Murkowski would not be able to run on the AIP's ticket. "There were no US Senate Alaskan Independence Party candidates on the Primary Election," Fenumiai wrote, "so there is no option for them to place someone on the ballot."
Since Murkowski missed the June filing deadline for independent candidates, her main other third-party option, other than running as a write-in, seems to be with the state's Libertarian Party. Fenumiai said that the party could replace its current candidate with Murkowski if it so chooses.
Scot Kohlhaas, chairman of the Alaska Libertarian Party, could not comment on whether they'd be open to putting her on their ballot. Their candidate, David Haase, would have to withdraw voluntarily, and the party would have to make the change by a date in September. "I can say this," Kohlhaas said. "She is more pro-choice, and we like that. She voted for amnesty, we like that. There are things about Lisa that we like."
It would ultimately come down to two things: if Lisa Murkowski can be convinced to pull a Lieberman, and if the Alaska Republican party wants to become the Alaskan Taliban.