In the latest Q-poll out today, Dick Blumenthal leads Linda McMahon by 6 points (51-45, MoE +/- 3.3) and despite the GOP-leading headline ("Blumenthal Up Just 6 Points"), leads in most of the internals in a state that boasts more independents than registered Democrats, and has 17% support for the tea party.
The internals:
Only 45 percent of Connecticut likely voters say Blumenthal can bring needed change to Washington, with 48 percent saying he can't bring change. But McMahon gets exactly the same numbers. Blumenthal leads McMahon on most other measures in the survey, as voters say:
• 72 - 25 percent that Blumenthal has the right experience to be a U.S Senator;
• 56 - 39 percent that McMahon does not have the right experience;
• 57 - 36 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
• 58 - 29 percent that she is honest and trustworthy;
• 55 - 38 percent that Blumenthal shares their values;
• 49 - 42 percent that McMahon shares their values.
Add to that the 55/39 fav/unfav for Blumenthal and the 45/41 for McMahon.
Some interesting stats: only 53% of McMahon voters are voting for her (42% of are voting against Blumenthal.) For Blumenthal voters, it's 73 for Blumenthal and 22 against McMahon.
What matters? It's the economy, stupid. Whatever protest vote is there, it's there over the economy.
The economy and jobs are the main issues in deciding how they will vote, 55 percent of voters say, followed by 11 percent who list health care, 10 percent who cite the federal deficit and 6 percent who say education. Only 4 percent list illegal immigration and 2 percent say Afghanistan.
And because of the economy, Obama has a 45-52 approval (similar to national numbers).
As Nate Silver points out, the "tightening" idea is nonsense, and mostly based on moving from registered voters to likely voters.
Now, let’s look again at those two polls in Connecticut. Quinnipiac’s August poll gave Mr. Blumenthal a 10-point lead among registered voters; their poll this morning gave him a 6-point lead among likely voters. In other words, we see a 4-point shift in the Republican candidate’s favor — exactly what we should have expected based our previous analysis of likely voter polls.
Want other polls? Rasmussen had Blumenthal up by 9 on Friday (for a gain of 2 since their last poll), and the partisan Hamilton Campaigns (D) released by the DSCC today, has him up by 15. Blumenthal remains in the lead, any way you slice it. Goodbye, Sen. Dodd. Say hello to Sen. Blumenthal.
Hugh Bailey, who is a very insightful political reporter and editor at the CT Post, had an interesting piece a few weeks back reminding us that this is the state that gave us Joe Lieberman.
Then there's Connecticut, where Richard Blumenthal remains the favorite. McMahon, though, has been chipping away for months, and has near-limitless self-funding power.
If we send Sen. McMahon to Washington, it could go a long way toward shifting control of the Senate. But with so much ground to make up, Republicans would probably still need some help.
Say Republicans go from 41 seats up to 49 or 50. Democrats would still have the edge with the vice president breaking a tie.
But that assumes Lieberman stays put. Any outcome close enough to throw control of the Senate up in the air would put Joe, the man without a party, directly in the spotlight (just like he was in the health care debate, after endorsing John McCain, after winning in '06, after the '08 election, etc.).
Joe remains unpopular in CT, and while voters are trying to send a message, muddled though it may be, that they are unhappy with current economic conditions, it's doubtful that Nutmeggers want to make Lieberman any more of a spotlight seeker in the Senate than he already has been. Under worst circumstances, Lieberman may turn out to be a bigger pain than ever in the Senate until 2012, when CT gets our chance to dump him. But as of this writing, McMahon still looks like a loser, and that keeps Joe a loser as well.