It's not just Christine O'Donnell. When it comes to tea party-type candidates in Republican primaries, Ovide Lamontagne's surge in New Hampshire is starting to draw attention.
Lamontagne is reported to have an internal poll showing him just 10 points behind Ayotte, 34% to 24%, with Bill Binnie and Jim Bender drawing 12% each.
GOP sources say if anyone pulls an upset of Ayotte in a crowded primary field, it's more likely to be Lamontagne, the party's gubernatorial nominee in 1996, rather than the two free-spending businessmen in the contest.
The lack of focus on the New Hampshire race -- and the difficulty in prognosticating its outcome -- has largely come from a (maddening!) dearth of quality public polling, but conversations with GOP strategists in the Granite State suggest an upset isn't out of the question.
"Right now, he's the frontrunners' biggest nightmare, because they really don't know what to do," said longtime New Hampshire GOP strategist Tom Rath who is neutral in the race. "You can't attack him because he's like a sacred cow, and you can't get to his right."
In a race with four candidates in double digits, it's tough to know how things will shake out. At this point it looks like it boils down to Lamontagne or Ayotte, but Ayotte is helped by a dynamic that puts her as the establishment frontrunner and the other three candidates vying for the anti-establishment vote. Will self-funder Bill Binnie be able to damage Ayotte or pull moderate voters away from her? Will Lamontagne carve into her conservative support enough to win it?
It's definitely another one to watch on Tuesday.