This is a continuation of a
previous postas to why I am not optimistic about the Maliki peace plan besides the fact that there is no legitimate plan for a rapid US withdrawal of combat units which is one of the primary Sunni Arab insurgent goals. According to
Agence France Press, the amnesty offer only seems to apply the wrongly arrested anyways.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has said his peace plan will not offer amnesty for rebels who have killed US-led troops.
"Those who targeted coalition troops, foreigners and journalists will not be offered amnesty as they have spread terror," he said in an interview with state television Al-Iraqiya.............. "Those who have no blood of Iraqis or security forces on their hand, our doors are open for them. But those who are involved in bombings and kidnappings we can't set them free."
Right now the amnesty does not extend to insurgents who have engaged Iraqi security forces, it does not extend to those who only engage US or other foreign forces. So who does this extend to who is actually involved in the violence?
A harsh peace can be imposed by a government that is approaching military and counter-insurgent superiority. In that case it is rational for the insurgent force to cut the best deal that they can because being in prison and alive is better than being killed. However a harsh peace is also a good way of starting the next war, even if the counterinsurgent/government force can proclaim a short term victory.
This is the demand of a government that has an army that is a joke. As Parapundit notes, the training and logistics capability of the Iraqi Army is slightly better than that of many other ghost armies. It is a satrapy force.
If the goal of the amnesty offer was to really split the insurgency into fragments between the more radical and less radical elements that are still strongly opposed to the Baghdad government and/or the US occupation of Iraq, then it has to be a lenient amnesty that actually provides legal protection to a lot of the people who are actually shooting and causing the degradation of the Iraqi state into failed statehood. As the amnesty is being reported, it is a joke, as it still 'outlaws' a significant portion of the military age males of the Sunni Arab population while they are fighting the US Army and Marines to an operational draw while still maintaining that time is on their side as their leaderships can read deployment schedules better than I can.
Therefore I have to conclude that this is a media push more than a reality push.