Less than 24 hours away from (Hawaii excepted) the last time voters head to the polls before the big Dance in November, and yet most of the headlines today emanate from elsewhere.
The DCCC is still playing offense on the polling front, and their news is good news. An independent pollster adds to the sense of potential relief in a key district, Chuck Grassley is going for the "lecherous man on Medicare" vote, and right-wing Nutmegger Kevin Rennie makes the most ironic statement in the blogosphere for the day.
All that (and more!) in the Monday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
CT-Sen: Irony officially dead, courtesy of RW blogger
There are no links on this story. I just wanted to share an absolute face-palm comment from conservative Connecticut writer Kevin Rennie. Noting that there was a sizeable contribution to the CT Democratic Party by the teenaged daughter of Democratic Senate nominee Richard Blumenthal, Rennie made the mocking observation that "there’s no recession at the Blumenthal manse." Um...Kevin? You do know that the GOP candidate is only relevant in this race because she is chasing Meg Whitman for the most obscenely self-funded political campaign of the cycle, right?
The source of Linda McMahon's amassed wealth still remains a sore point for the candidate. A law professor is poking around, asking the McMahon campaign if, counter to denials by McMahon, the WWE's wrestlers are subject to "death clauses" which hold the corporation harmless if its "independent contractors" die as a result of their work.
GA-Sen: SUSA poll gives Isakson wide lead for general election
It is no secret that SurveyUSA has been the Eeyore of political polling for Democrats this cycle, even more so than The House of Ras (despite the lack of an obvious rooting interest like Rasmussen has shown). They defend that title today with ugly new numbers in the Peach State. While other pollsters have shown state labor commissioner Michael Thurmond performing respectably for the Dems against GOP incumbent Senator Johnny Isakson, SUSA has Isakson just blasting Thurmond. The pollster has Isakson leading the Democrat by a twenty-two point margin (56-34).
IA-Sen: Charles Grassley=Smooth Operator
Longtime Republican Senator Chuck Grassley must think that he knows the way to a woman's heart (that old charmer). Criticized for his aloofness during a recent joint appearance with Democrat Roxanne Conlin, Grassley had a snappy retort.
Check this out:
Reporters asked Grassley about his odd body language and failure to look at Conlin. To which, Conlin said, Grassley responded: "She’s a really good looking woman. I don’t have a problem looking at her."
Reporters confirmed Conlin's version of the events.
NH-Sen: Final pre-primary poll shows potential toss-up on GOP side
Much of the buzz today (and justifiably so) has been about the Castle-O'Donnell Senate primary in Delaware. But keep both eyes peeled on the Republican Senate primary in the Granite State, according to the final pre-primary poll by the prolific GOP number crunchers at Magellan Strategies. The pollster has longtime frontrunner Kelly Ayotte (the state A.G.) with a mere four-point edge of surging right-wing darling Ovide Lamontagne. Ayotte sits at 35% of the vote, with Lamontagne at 31%. Two other contenders sit in the low double digits: Bill Binnie at 14% and Jim Bender 10%.
NY-Sen: Gillibrand well ahead, GOP primaries still in the air
During Saturday's edition of the Wrap, we touched on the shocking final pre-primary poll by Siena (the poll which showed that Rick Lazio was in real danger of losing the NY gubernatorial primary to Carl Paladino). Lost in the "holy crap" reaction to that poll was the fact that the Senate primaries were also polled (PDF). Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has an enormous lead over Gail Goode (63-12), whose primary challenge never gained elevation. On the GOP side, though, there is a little more uncertainty, as almost half of the electorate was undecided. Among those who are off the fence, however, former Congressman Joe DioGuardi has a sizeable lead over his rivals. DioGuardi has 29% of the vote, followed by both David Malpass (14%) and Bruce Blakeman (11%). Siena also polls the primary to see who will lose to incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer. Undecided is the runaway winner in this one, with the majority of voter unsure of their preference. Jay Townsend holds a pretty insignificant lead (given the undecideds) of 25-17 over former CIA agent Gary Berntsen.
WA-Sen: Didier still mum on Rossi, who now trails Murray by nine
The Elway poll, a pollster with a long track record in Washington State, has come out with new data in the state. It puts incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray in the best position we have seen in quite a while. The poll shows Murray sitting at 50% of the vote, with Republican nominee Dino Rossi trailing at 41% of the vote. Meanwhile, Dino Rossi cannot quite escape his acrimonious GOP primary, despite it being nearly a month later. Apparently, vanquished teabagger Clint Didier is not yet sold on his party's nominee. In an open letter last week, Didier pointed out that he still cannot see fit to endorse Rossi, because Rossi has not yet acquiesced to the conditions (a trio of policy positions) which Didier placed on his endorsement.
THE U.S. HOUSE
MA-10: The kind of headline you really want on Primary Eve
In a sense of timing that is simply immaculate, Democratic House candidate William Keating made news less than 48 hours before his primary in the open-seat battle to replace longtime Democratic Congressman Bill Delahunt. And he made it in the best possible way--he was among a handful of restaurant patrons that attempted to run down an alleged purse snatcher this weekend in Falmouth. No word on whether his Democratic primary rival, state legislator Robert O'Leary, is patrolling the streets of the Cape, looking for his own criminal to bust on Election Eve.
NV-03: Independent pollster gives vulnerable Dem expanded lead
From the outset of the 2010 election cycle, freshman Democrat Dina Titus appeared to be one of the most vulnerable members of her party seeking re-election. She had well-funded, legitimate competition in GOP state legislator Joe Heck, and she had a district that elected Republican Jon Porter from 2002-2008. However, new data from the crew at Mason Dixon shows that Titus is more than holding her own against the GOP upstart. The latest M-D poll in the district gives Titus a four-point lead (47-43) over Heck. Their previous survey in the district put Titus up by only a single point.
PA-08: Dem internal poll gives incumbent Murphy the narrow edge
This is right in that zone where an incumbent's internal poll is in the netherworld between reassuring and terrifying. New numbers (PDF) from Global Strategy Group on behalf of second-term Democrat Patrick Murphy shows him leading his GOP opponent(former Congressman Michael Fitzpatrick) by just four points (47-43). Though the release came recently, the poll itself was conducted in mid-August, meaning some dust certainly has accumulated on those numbers, as well.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: DCCC releases some very positive polling numbers
Last week, I noted that the DCCC had, for the first time this cycle, released a batch of internal polling that contradicted the popular CW that there were would be virtually no Democratic incumbents standing in November. Today, the DCCC put more numbers on the table, courtesy of internal polls from Anzalone Liszt and Grove Insight. The races are ones that have been polled, and have been on the target list for some time. The numbers are, as you might expect from internal polling, quite good.
KY-06: Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 52%, Andy Barr (R) 38%
NM-02: Rep. Harry Teague (D) 51%, Steve Pearce (R) 44%
OR-05: Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) 42%, Scott Bruun (R) 29%
PA-12: Rep. Mark Critz (D) 48%, Tim Burns (R) 41%
The DCCC also cited public polling showing Dems ahead in IA-03 (Leonard Boswell) and NV-03 (Dina Titus), as well as internal polling previously covered here in the Wrap showing Dan Boren (OK-02) leading and Betsy Markey (CO-04) in a dead heat.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AK-Gov: GOP primary loser might want in (no...not Murkowski)
This is potentially interesting: Republican Bill Walker, who dropped over a quarter million bucks out of his own wallet in a narrow loss to incumbent GOP Governor Sean Parnell, confirms that he is waiting to see if any third party candidates are going to drop out in advance of Wednesday's ballot deadline. Walker has openly flirted with the idea of continuing his candidacy, which could benefit Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz if the race were to tighten before November.
GA-Gov: SUSA sees double-digit GOP lead for Nathan Deal
SurveyUSA also polled the Georgia Governor's race, and they found a result that was, to say the least, at least as depressing as their Senate numbers. The pollster puts scandal-tinged former GOP Congressman Nathan Deal up eleven points on former Democratic Governor Roy Barnes (49-38). Libertarian John Monds is doing shockingly well, earning 9% of the vote in his own right.
MN-Gov: Prominent GOP figure goes Indie in gubernatorial race
This could be of great help to Democratic nominee Mark Dayton. Former Republican Governor Arne Carlson, among the more prominent moderate Republicans in the state, announced that he would not be endorsing the GOP nominee in the gubernatorial race (right-wing state legislator Tom Emmer). Instead, Carlson is throwing his support to Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. Carlson's endorsement could be the signal to moderate Republicans that they do not have to settle for Emmer, and gives Horner a sizeable boost to his credibility.
TX-Gov: Perry leads by six, but well under 50%, according to new poll
A new poll conducted for the Texas Tribune out of the Lone Star State puts incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry slightly ahead of Democratic challenger Bill White. The poll has Perry sitting at just 39%, with White at 33% and independent candidates collaborating for 6% of the vote. That leaves, of course, plenty of undecided voters for the November election (the pollster confirms, by the way, that they did not press leaners in this survey).
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
It was housekeeping day at the House of Ras, as they did not add any new states to the ledger, but rather finished up states that already had data late last week. The Illinois' numbers are a bit ugly, claiming that incumbent Governor Pat Quinn is losing to Republican Bill Brady by 13. The outcome might be believable, but the margin seems quite high.
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 46%, Tom Foley (R) 39%
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 50%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 37%
SD-Gov: Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%, Scott Heidepriem (D) 28%