At least with 83% probability, according to Nate Silver. But with the NRCC disowning his opponent Christine O'Donnell, and Mike Castle not (at least yet) endorsing her, I'd make Coons' odds better than that, however loathe I am to bet against Nate.
But what do we know of Chris Coons?
As County Executive, Chris has successfully guided New Castle County through the deepest economic downturn in generations. He's cut millions in wasteful spending and restored fiscal responsibility to county government, while creating innovative solutions including the Office of Redevelopment and the Problem Properties Task Force, removing dangerous parole violators from our neighborhoods, and giving police the tools they needed to reduce crime by 12 percent...
Chris is a graduate of Amherst College with a B.A. in Chemistry and Political Science, and earned his law degree from Yale Law School and a Master's in Ethics from Yale Divinity School. Chris also studied at the University of Nairobi in Kenya.
Ruh roh. O'Donnell is going to have a field day with that. After all, she implied that her primary opponent was gay. Why shouldn't she imply that Chris Coons became a Muslim while overseas?
Any other dark secrets?
Prior to serving as County Executive, Chris worked as an attorney for Delaware-based W.L. Gore & Associates, one of the 200 largest privately-held companies in the U.S., where he helped the company expand and create hundreds of jobs. He has also worked with several non-profits, including the National Coalition for the Homeless, the education-oriented "I Have a Dream" Foundation, and the Investor Responsibility Research Center.
It's hard to imagine Tea Partiers liking non-profits devoted to the homeless or education, but these look pretty safe to me. Phew.
What about his positions?
- Health Care:
Chris supports President Obama’s landmark health care legislation and is committed to working across the aisle to make it better... Although the measure adopted represents a momentous step forward, it is not perfect. As our Senator, Chris will work to improve the system to ensure accessibility and affordability for all Americans and for the businesses where they work.
OMG. Tea Party heads explode: Chris Coons wants to make improvements on health care reform instead of repealing the entire bill..
- Energy:
Chris Coons believes we can free ourselves from this current system by diversifying the country’s energy sources... Chris wants to encourage other innovative programs like wind farming just off the shore of Delaware. He also is calling for a nationwide cap and trade program that will help establish a price on carbon and unleash the creativity of American ingenuity to help solve this crisis.
Tea Party is not happy: Isn't 'cap and trade' socialism?
- Jobs:
...it is important to directly help those who have suffered most in this crisis by increasing aid to the unemployed and expanding training programs to help those transitioning through careers... continue to strengthen America’s economy through strategic long-term investments in infrastructure, training and workforce development. Chris will use his position in the Senate to fight for trade agreements that contain good labor and environmental standards that will help to create new American jobs, not ship them overseas.
Helping the unemployed?: You mean the people too lazy to go out and find a job after being unemployed for more than a year? Those people? The ones the Tea Party wants to take America back from? Chris Coons wants to help them? This is going to get ugly.
- LGBT equality:
Chris has always been a supporter of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) community here in Delaware. As County Executive, he created an external Diversity Commission that reviews county policies and practices and includes a representative from the LGBT community. Chris has also ensured domestic partnership benefits in New Castle County government and supported LGBT issues debated in the state legislature. If elected to the US Senate, he will continue fighting for LGBT issues such as: marriage equality for all Americans, repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and the Defense of Marriage Act, and supporting the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) and Uniting American Families Act (UAFA).
Sexual purity alert! On the other hand, this might not be a problem for Coons, because he does not seem to have a definitive position on masturbation, while O'Donnell does. Still, taking positions that around 70% of Americans and likely Delaware citizens endorse is never a good idea. No, on second thought, look for this to get ugly too.
Delaware, this is not a hard choice.