Stan Greenberg's Democracy Corps has released the polling data that he briefed the House Dem caucus on last night. The basics, it's a win-win for Dems.
Democrats should embrace a tax debate. Frankly, they do not have many issues where:
1. There is a 17-point margin in favor of the Democratic position, 55 to 38 percent.
2. The strong messages gives a disproportionate lift to the Democratic candidates – scored 13 points better than named Democratic candidates while Republican messages performed half as well.
3. There is an opportunity to show seriousness on the deficit, while undermining Republicans on the issue.
4. The choice re-enforces Democrats’ core values and strongest framework for the election (for the middle class versus Wall Street).
The payoff from this debate comes in a 2-point narrowing of the Republican lead in the congressional vote after hearing the debate. And for the most powerful Democratic messages, it narrows the vote by 5 points, to 45 to 47 percent....
Some of the key findings include:
* Over half – 55 percent – support increasing taxes by letting some or all of the Bush-era tax cuts expire. Specifically, 42 percent say the cuts should remain in place for the middle class, but expire for those making more than $250,000. Just 38 percent say all the tax cuts should remain in place. This is not a purely base issue – by a 17-point margin, independents favor raising taxes on the wealthy.
* This message is even more popular when it is contextualized by broader economic messages. By a 10-point margin, voters are persuaded and reassured by the idea of raising taxes on the wealthiest so that revenue can be used for deficit reduction and investment in jobs.
* Majorities clearly side with extending the cuts for the middle class, at least for some time. Voters favor extending the tax cuts for the middle class for two years, as some have proposed, while a similar majority favors extending these cuts permanently. The proposals receive intense popular support from Democrats, with all proposals advocating expiration of tax cuts getting more than six-in-ten support.
That would be poll number seven in the list of current polls showing strong support for the Obama middle class tax cuts, and the plan to tax the rich.
A new policy memo from Anzalone Liszt [pdf] to the White House makes the case.
The president’s recent proposal to extend tax cuts for the middle class, while letting the Bush tax cuts expire for the wealthy, is a smart political move for a number of reasons: 1) it enjoys rising public support; 2) it protects against the loss of swing independents; 3) it allows Democrats to drive a contrast with the GOP; and 4) it allows Democrats to address voters’ overlapping economic concerns.
Being scared of having a tax debate is insane when the tax debate is about Mitch McConnell's $4 trillion tax cuts for the rich proposal and Boehner's continued bumbling. This is a no-brainer, and Congressional Dems should follow Obama's lead and welcome the fight.