If Democrats have one single goal for next year's elections, I think it's pretty obvious. As most of you know, we need 6 new Senate seats to take back the upper chamber, and overcoming that gap is not likely to happen in 2006 without a Democratic wave. Now, that wave is certainly possible, but we can't just count on it happening.
So the Senate is unlikely to go Democratic in 2006 (though anything's possible, and the government's current unpopularity could be just what we need).
The House is a very different story. Though 4 times as large as the Senate, the gap we need to overcome is only 2.5 times as big as that in the Senate - 15 seats. It may sound like a lot, until you figure out that 15 seats is only 3% of the total in the House (435 seats).
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In the House, believe it or not, Democrats actually would have gained 2 seats in 2004 if not for the DeLay-led redistricting in Texas.
We all want the same thing in 2006: a Congress no longer dominated by radical, corrupt partisans like Tom DeLay (and before him, our old friend Newt Gingrich). So here are 15 possible pickups (in no particular order) that could lead to Speaker Nancy Pelosi:
Texas 22
Tom DeLay - R
DeLay is becoming a campaign tactic and is unpopular in his heavily Republican district based on a rightful perception of corruption. He will also face strong (and ironic) opposition from one of the Democrats he redistricted out of a job last year - Nick Lampson. Lampson has moved to the Houston-area suburban district and is now running full-speed, with little credible opposition in the Democratic primary. And despite the partisan bent of the TX-22, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see DeLay go bye-bye (unless, of course, he's in jail before the election).
Colorado 7
Bob Beauprez - R
Beauprez is running for Governor, and his seat should see a battle royale if all goes as planned. The district was created in the 2002 redistricting cycle as a competitive seat based in the suburban areas around Denver. Gore and Kerry both won the district, and a slew of candidates will be running.
Iowa 1
Jim Nussle - R
Nussle is also running for Governor, and IA-1 leans Democratic (Gore got 52%, Kerry got 53%). However, this will not be a slam dunk for the Democrat, as voters in the district have gotten used to voting Republican for Congress and will need to be reminded of their usual political leanings. Anyhow, this will be a race to watch.
Connecticut 4
Chris Shays - R
Shays had one of the weakest reelections of any incumbent in 2004 (52% to 48%). Like every Connecticut district, his leans Democratic (went to Gore and Kerry fairly easily). His 2004 opponent, Diane Farrell, is planning another run, or so it appears. She could easily have enough to win next year.
Connecticut 2
Rob Simmons - R
Simmons is in only a slighter better position than Shays. It is only a matter of time before Connecticut's 3 Republicans fall, and Simmons and Shays are especially vulnerable (more so than 12-termer Nancy Johnson). Simmons, like Shays, had a tough race last year. Watch this one.
Indiana 9
Mike Sodrel - R
Sodrel upset an incumbent in 2004 in a traditional Blue Dog district (Democrat Lee Hamilton owned the 9th from 1965 to 1999). The district is Bush-friendly in conservative southeast Indiana. So why is this even on the list? Because that former incumbent, Baron Hill, wants his seat back! Hill has already announced his interest and has talked with Democratic House leaders about coming back. Sodrel has the edge since he is now the incumbent (and since Bush will surely come to his aid), but with just a bit of a Dem breeze, Hill can come storming back to Washington.
Pennsylvania 6
Jim Gerlach - R
Gerlach has now won two 51-49 races, unimpressive since Republicans carved out this competitive Philly-area district in 2002. His 2004 opponent, Lois Murphy, is vying again in 2006, and if she can just raise enough money she can win. After all, 49% is not shabby against an incumbent in a Republican year.
Pennsylvania 8
Mike Fitzpatrick - R
Fitzpatrick is one of several wingnuts (like Reichert, Nancy Johnson, Charles Dent, and Charlie Bass) representing a Democratic-leaning district. PA-8 is centrist (strongly pro-choice) and located in the famously moderate Philly suburbs. A Repuke has no place holding this seat. Several Democrats are running.
Washington 8
Dave Reichert - R
Ditto to PA-8. Moderate, Dem-leaning district in major metropolitan area (Seattle). DeLay crony incumbent. Essentially, I'd like to "Tom Foley" Reichert; that is, use the "he's out of step with his constituents" argument. Ditto for Fitzpatrick, Nancy Johnson, etc. etc. etc.
Connecticut 5
Nancy Johnson - R
Ditto ditto ditto. Johnson had an easy race in 2004, but a tough one in 2002 (against fellow incumbent Jim Maloney) and in other years, despite her seniority. She is another DeLayite out of step with the liberal voters of CT-5. One Democrat, Chris Murphy, is in. All I can say is, BLEAUGH.
Wisconsin 8
Mark Green - R
This northeast Wisconsin district is open as Green is running for Governor. It leans Republican, but only by a little, and some Midwestern Democrats have won in tougher areas (Illinois 8, Missouri 4, Minnesota 7...). Can we get a former Green Bay Packer to run?????????
Illinois 6
Henry Hyde - R
The story here (in my current district) on a numbers basis is similar to WI-8. It is 53% Bush, but given Democratic gains in Illinois over the last few years, an upset can't be ruled out, especially since Hyde (aka DuPage's own little Strom) is retiring. Christine Cegelis, the 2004 candidate who garnered a surprising 45%, is running again, while Peter Roskam is running on the Repuke side. Roskam definitely is favored, but bigger surprises have occurred in the Land of Lincoln (for example, the defeat of Ways and Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski in 1994).
Florida 22
Clay Shaw - R
Here's yet another case of a party-line Repuke out of touch with his constituents. FL-22 was redrawn in 2002 by Republicans to be more friendly to now 13-term incumbent Shaw, but it still leans ever so slightly Democratic (the district runs along South Florida's coastline). State Sen. Ron Klein is running, and some have high hopes of beating Shaw, who did have a tough race as recently as 2000 (though FL-22 was significantly more Democratic then).
Minnesota 2
John Kline - R
Kline faced very flawed opposition last year, but may have a much tougher time next year. Minneapolis FBI agent Colleen Rowley is running, and she's serious. Her position as a whistleblower on the agency's disastrous pre-9/11 actions will earn her both praise and scorn. MN-2, in the suburbs outside of the Twin Cities, leans slightly Republican, but is competitive.
New Mexico 1
Heather Wilson - R
In yet another frustrating case, Wilson represents the Gore- and Kerry-won 1st district around Albuquerque. She won by narrow, but not tight, margins in 2002 and 2004. Democrats are hoping for NM Attorney General Patricia Madrid to jump in. If she does, watch for this one to tumble into competition. Without Madrid though, Wilson is still not guaranteed reelection given her unimpressive numbers historically.
Other races could possibly become tight: Pennsylvania 18 if former State Treasurer Barbara Hafer runs; Indiana 8 if Sheriff Brian Ellsworth runs a decent campaign; Illinois 18 (probably an open seat) depending on who runs; even Arizona 1, which was scandalously mishandled in 2004.
Thoughts, please.