Tom Donohue, the president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (which is not to be confused with state chambers of commerce), is arguably the most powerful Republican business lobbyist in Washington, DC -- and according to CNN, he's worried Republicans might not win back control of the House this fall. Ed Henry reports:
CNN has learned that Tom Donohue, the powerful president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who has vowed to spend more than $75 million on key House and Senate races, has privately told colleagues in recent weeks he believes Democrats will just barely hold on to the House majority.
Two sources familiar with the conversations said Donohue has privately said he's gone over every single key race in the House, and he believes Republicans will lose a few seats -- losses he believes they don't see coming -- because it is more of an anti-establishment election than an anti-Democratic election.
Donohue's skepticism appears in sync with public attitudes. As Politico's Andy Barr argues, this year's election narrative has not yet been written. He points out that while a plurality of Americans believe Republicans will win control of both chambers of Congress, most Americans say they either don't know or believe Democrats will retain control. In addition, Barr notes that two recent polls (one from Gallup, the other from Politico) show a tied race on the generic ballot. In fact, as Markos wrote yesterday, outside of Rasmussen, Democrats actually have a slight lead in the generic ballot according to pollster.com.
If Democrats do end up prevailing in November, holding onto both the House and the Senate, part of the reason will almost certainly be that the GOP peaked too early. Conventional wisdom is that people like a winner, and according to that wisdom, the GOP's lead in August polling should have provided them a boost heading into September. But what may actually be happening is that as the possibility of GOP victory became plausible, voters began thinking about this election as a choice rather than a referendum.
It's been clear for some time that this has been the Obama administration's strategy. Remember in July when Robert Gibbs said the GOP might win the fall elections? As I argued back then, he wasn't trying to boost the GOP. Instead, he was trying to frame the election as a choice between Democrats and Republicans. Given that Americans still don't like Republican policies, and that teahadists are just embarassed Republicans, that strategy made a lot of sense. We'll soon know how well it worked. At least for now, Tom Donohue is worried that it will work well.