In August, US officials claimed that 75% of the oil had vanished. Today, the Oil Spill Commission was told that "over 50 percent of the total discharge" remains in the Gulf, still embedded in the ecosystem and on the ocean floor.
His assessment implied some 2.5 million barrels of oil -- or 105 million gallons -- was still embedded in the fragile ecosystem, out of the estimated 4.9 million barrels that gushed into the Gulf during the 87 days before the well was capped.
"Much of it is now buried in marine and coastal sediments," MacDonald warned, adding there was "scant evidence for bacterial degradation of this material prior to burial."
While the oil might not be clearly visible now, MacDonald warned that "any storm event tends to resuspend them."
Resuspension of oil? Does that mean that a storm event would kick some of the 2.5 million barrels of oil now embedded in wetlands or the ocean floor back into the water column?
The government and BP did discuss one factor that contributed to so much oil not being recovered. Retired coast guard admiral Thad Allen earlier acknowledged that confused perceptions about who was in charge adversely affected stopping the crude from hitting shore and also cleaning off the shoreline.
BP quickly responded that it was always clear to them that the Coast Guard was in charge. However, BP kept changing the flow rate estimates that could impact the nature of the governmental response, and thus oil recovery:
But Messrs. Graham and Reilly, the co-chairman, said the low estimates probably did affect the handling of the spill response. "I would assume it's common sense that the flow rate will determine how many skimmers you need; how many thousand feet of boom you bring into the area; what you're going to do with respect to dispersants that you order," Mr. Reilly said. "It's not entirely clear to me how it could be that flow rate did not affect the response."
Obama's panel recommends that a significant portion of the penalties collected from BP should be used in a new Gulf Coast Recovery Fund for restoration efforts for the ecological, economic, public health and psychological damages caused by the oil gusher.
BP has pledged compensation for lost property and livelihoods. However, it has not committed to gulf restoration projects that cover more than the immediate impact of the spill. Knowing that some lawmakers want to ban BP from future Gulf drilling, BP executives take the position that any such contributions would "depend on their continued access to oil and gas beneath the gulf waters."
Meanwhile, this week the Interior Department plans to issue new rules regulating offshore drilling. These rules are intended to prevent another BP-type gusher and to pave the path to end the deepwater drilling ban before November 30.
So, the game plan seems to be to move forward in a "responsible," more regulated manner....while perhaps 50% of this spill is still hanging out in our ecosystems.