The three-way race for Senate could turn into a real corker, judging by the latest CNN poll.
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday indicates that 38 percent of likely voters in the state support GOP nominee Joe Miller, with 36 percent saying they back Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who was narrowly defeated by Miller in last month's GOP primary.
Murkowski is now running as a write-in candidate in the general election.
According to the poll, 22 percent back Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee, with four percent either undecided or not supporting any of the three candidates listed in the survey.
Miller's two-point advantage over Murkowski is within the survey's sampling error.
According to the polling, "[n]early four in ten Democratic likely voters say they plan to write in Murkowski's name." McAdams needs to get them back. The final day of polling was yesterday, before his first, fantastic ad hit the airwaves.
McAdams' path is definitely uphill, but it's also clear. Let Murkowski and Miller bash the hell out of each other, making an already unpopular Miller even more disliked, as well as fomenting resentment among a big part of the Republican party against Murkowski for staying in the race.
If McAdams can get his word out, and focus on his positive commitment to the people of Alaska, there's a slim but definite opening for him. You can help.
Update: Nate has another poll with Murkowski leading (with caveats).
[A] poll provided to the New York Times by Craciun Research shows Ms. Murkowski with an apparent lead. The poll, which was conducted on behalf of the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, gave Ms. Murkowski 41 percent of the vote, Mr. Miller 30 percent, and Mr. McAdams, 19 percent. It was conducted Sept. 24 and Sept. 25 among 300 Alaskans who have voted in three of the last four statewide elections.
The issue with each of these polls, however, is that they made no particular accommodation to account for the fact that Ms. Murkowski will be a write-in candidate, as her name was mentioned alongside Mr. Miller and Mr. McAdams.