Both the ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ polls have the same message: the economy isn't getting better fast enough, and someone's head will roll.
According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll released today, Republicans are heading into the final weeks of the midterm campaign with the political climate highly in their favor. According to the poll, Americans are increasingly frustrated by a lack of economic progress, deeply dissatisfied with the federal government and critical of President Obama's leadership.
A combination of sky-high GOP enthusiasm, a deep sense of pessimism about the country’s direction and dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama's stewardship of the economy has given Republicans a clear advantage heading into the November midterm elections, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
No breaking news here, it's an accurate view of the landscape.
NBC/WSJ covers the likely-registered voter split, with the LV model highly favoring the GOP as it has all summer, and this form ABC/WaPo does the same:
Among all voters, 47 percent say they would back the Republican in their congressional district if the election were held now, while 45 percent would vote for the Democrat. Any GOP advantage on this question has been rare in past years - and among those most likely to vote this fall, the Republican advantage swells to 53 percent to the Democrats' 40 percent.
It remains true that the public doesn't like Republicans, but in this economic climate, it may not matter. From NBC/WSJ, the only thing that could mitigate the storm:
The survey shows that among likely voters — based on their interest and past voting history — 49 percent prefer a Republican-controlled Congress while 40 percent want one run by Democrats. Among those expressing a high interest in voting, that GOP lead increases 18 points, 53 percent to 35 percent.
Among all registered voters, however, both parties are tied on the generic ballot, 43 percent to 43 percent, suggesting that Democrats could potentially blunt GOP gains in November with high turnout at the polls.
LV's are a better screen than RV's after labor Day for who shows up. That's always been the case and with the enthusiasm gap, not likely to change. And it's still the economy, stupid, and nothing else.
Gerald Seib at the WSJ looks at the numbers as well and lays out the implications:
The poll, taken to coincide with the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the campaign's home stretch, shows the Democrats' biggest problem is a wide passion gap: Voters angry at Democrats are fired up to vote, while many who like them are yawning over the coming election.
When voters overall are asked whether they prefer that November's vote produce a Congress controlled by Democrats or by Republicans, they split evenly, 43% favoring Democrats and 43% Republicans.
But among those who appear most likely to vote, based on their level of interest in the campaign and their history of voting, the Republicans own a dramatic 49% to 40% advantage. If that kind of lead holds, Republicans would almost certainly take back control of the House.
Seib points out the key concept:
One hope for Democrats is this: There are enough pro-Democrat, pro-Obama voters available to help the party head off disaster—if they can be persuaded to show up and vote. In the survey, those who expressed the very highest levels of interest in this year's election preferred a Republican Congress by a margin of 53% to 35%. Among all other, less interested voters, Democrats are preferred by a 20-point margin.
If you want to do more than complain, work on GOTV. Dem support is there (WaPo data), but it needs to get to the polls.
The tea party pos/neg in the NBC/WSJ poll is declining. The enthusiasm gap between registered voters and likely voters reflects an American political truth: support for Democrats (and dislike of Republicans) remains widespread (-7 positive minus negative for D, -13 for R in NBC/WSJ poll) but has to get to the polls. Meanwhile tea party support (-8) has declined since January when it was +7.
But what counts is who votes. And the economy is driving the picture, making voters consider Republicans despite their dislike of them.
From MSNBC:
Perhaps more ominous for Democrats, the number of Americans who approve of Obama's handling of the economy — the top issue in the country — has declined below 40 percent for the first time.
"We all know that there is a hurricane coming for the Democrats," says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. "We just don’t know if it will be a Category 4 or a Category 5."
Have you done your hurricane preparations?
Complete results, NBC/WSJ poll (.pdf) MoE +/- 3.1
Complete results, ABC/WaPo poll MoE +/- 3.5