Tonight’s Senate snapshot shows Democrats gaining one seat from last Friday, rising from 50 to 51.
Notably, Democrats also dropped a seat in the non-Rasmussen Snapshot since the last time it was updated. This means that tonight, for the first time ever, the Rasmussen and non-Rasmussen snapshots have converged.
There are still some slight differences between the two snapshots, as you can see below. Still, the close similarities between the two snapshots serves as a warning to those who take comfort in dismissing some polls or polling firms, while embracing others. More often than not, rather than arguing with polls, the most accurate snapshot of where a campaign stands comes from just averaging all polls. (Although, admittedly, even I leave out some polls, such as the Columbus Dispatch poll, because it is conducted by mail.)
Senate Snapshot, September 7th
(With Rasmussen)
(Without Rasmussen)
Until the divergence between the Rasmussen and non-Rasmussen Snapshots reappears, I will only be producing and publishing the Snapshot with Rasmussen polling.
Now, to answer some of your questions.
Q. ShirleyG asks:
"Is "enthusiasm gap" included in polling snapshot?"
A. The answer is "mostly." The "enthusiasm gap" is more easily understood as the difference in a party’s performance between polls with registered voters, and polls with likely voters. At this point, roughly three-quarters of the polls used to produce the above averages are likely voter polls. So, while the entirety of the enthusiasm gap is not yet included in the snapshot, most of it already is.
Q. jj32 asks:
Why the difference in polling averages between Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics? For example, RCP for California Senate shows Boxer up by 4.3%. Yet Pollster shows Fiorina by 0.7, if I'm reading that correctly."
A. The answer is that Real Clear Politics only includes one poll, per polling firm, in their averages. Everyone else, including Pollster.com, fivethirtyeight, and myself, include multiple polls from the same polling firm when applicable. Personally, I think RCP is making a mistake by only including one poll per polling firm, and 2008 results back me up.
Q. thetadelta asks:
What specifically is the goal of the post - to get people off their couch and volunteer - or donate?
A. The goal of the Snapshot is to present as accurate a picture of where the 2010 Senate picture stands, as of the evening it is posted. That’s it. I believe that the best activism comes when you have the most accurate information possible.
Speaking of which, make sure to contribute to Jack Conway's moneybomb now. We are close to hitting 1,000 donors, more than twice our original goal. That is exactly the kind of energy we need to help gain ground, and play some offense in Kentucky.
Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.
--A * indicates that the candidate has a primary challenger, but is the favorite to win the nomination.
--All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.