Public Policy Polling. 9/2-6. Likely voters. MoE 4.2% (no trendlines)
Rick Perry (R) 48
Bill White (D) 42
The race is confounding the major trends we're seeing in most contests across the country. White is winning independents 53-34. Republicans have the lead with them most everywhere else. White's winning 82% of Democrats while Perry's getting 77% of Republicans. Republican voters are more unified than Democrats most everywhere else. But there are a lot more GOP voters than Dems in Texas so Perry's still ahead anyway.
At 50% a majority of Texans disapprove of the job Perry's doing with only 39% giving him good marks. Democrats dislike him (85%) a whole lot more than Republicans like him (63%) and independents split against him by a 25/64 margin.
This comes in the heels of a poll (PDF) by a Republican outfit which had Perry up by just 42-41.
I don't need to explain how big taking the Texas governorship would be, particularly in this climate. It would be a narrative buster, and some much needed evidence that Texas' demographic changes are leading to the long-predicted leftward drift of the state.