A fairly quiet Thursday on the campaign trail, though we do see some new and encouraging numbers out of the Hawkeye State (and the source will surprise you). We have less encouraging numbers out of Maine (and the source will surprise you there, as well).
That, plus a lesson in campaign comity from the lovely state of Vermont. All that (and more!) in the Thursday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
FL-Sen: New poll gives Rubio double-digit lead in Sunshine State
A new Sunshine State News poll (put together by sometimes-GOP, sometimes-media pollster Susquehanna Communications) shows that the post-primary bounce for Democrat Kendrick Meek seems to have come largely out of the support for Independent candidate Charlie Crist. The poll puts Republican Marco Rubio at 43% of the vote, with Crist now well behind at 29% of the vote. Meek has now moved into contention with Crist, logging 23% of the vote.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-01/AZ-05: Pair of GOP internal polls tease competitive Fall races
If you buy new internal polling from the GOP out of the Grand Canyon State, political neophyte Paul Gosar could topple freshman Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, while the second time might be the charm for David Schwiekert over Democrat Harry Mitchell. A new Moore Information poll out of the northeastern-based 1st district puts Gosar in a dead heat with Kirkpatrick, with both candidates grabbing 43% of the vote. Meanwhile, down in the greater Phoenix metro area, a National Research poll puts Schweikert (who lost by nine points in 2008) up with a modest lead over second-term Rep. Harry Mitchell (46-38). Both polls were conducted a little over a week ago.
CO-04: Dem internal claims a tie race in swing district
In a rather transparent counterpunch to that ugly Ayers McHenry polling dump last week, incumbent Democrat Betsy Markey has released internal polling showing a coin flip between her and GOP challenger Cory Gardner. The poll, conducted this week by Bennett Pitts and Northington, puts both candidates at 38%, and has two third-party candidates snatching 7% of the vote. One criticism of the Ayers McHenry poll was that (mostly rightward-leaning) third party candidates were not offered as an alternative in their polls.
CT-05: Even GOP internals in district put Murphy at a toss-up
In addition to their work in central Arizona, National Research has been busy in the northeastern part of the country, as well. Even their polls, however, could not provide a lead for GOP challenger Sam Caliguiri. The internal poll, conducted last week, put second-term Democrat Chris Murphy one point ahead of Caliguiri (40-39). Another GOP poll, that one from Ayers McHenry, had Murphy ahead of Republican Steve Greenberg (who wound up losing the primary to Caliguiri).
IA-01/IA-02/IA-03: GOP poll puts Dems ahead in three key races
Call this one the "holy shit" surprise poll of the day, especially when you consider the source. GOP pollsters Voter/Consumer Research headed into the field in Iowa, and found that all three Democratic incumbents polled hold respectable leads over their Republican challengers. The big surprise among the three is veteran Rep. Leonard Boswell, who most folks conceded was trailing Republican challenger Brad Zaun. The GOP pollster begs to differ, however, putting Boswell up by nine points (48-39) over Zaun. In Iowa's 2nd district, second-term incumbent David Loebsack holds a similar edge over Mariannette Miller-Meeks (47-39), while over in the 1st district, second term Democrat Bruce Braley holds a slightly larger edge over Republican Ben Lange (50-39). The pollster found slightly closer races when they confined their sample to so-called "certain to vote" participants.
KS-04: Hartman flirtation with Libertarian bid ends
A slight disappointment for Democrats, or anyone who likes a good political grudge match. Wealthy businessman Wink Hartman, who lost a bloody GOP primary to nominee Mike Pompeo, has reversed course on plans to run on the Libertarian line. The Libertarian candidate had withdrawn due to health problems, and as recently as yesterday it appeared as if Hartman and the Libertarians were close to marriage. Hartman appeared to have been the recipient of extensive lobbying by the GOP, who feared that Hartman on the Libertarian line might provide enough erosion from Pompeo to hand the victory to his hard-charging Democratic rival, state legislator Raj Goyle.
ME-01/ME-02: Dems under 50%, with single digit leads, according to PPP
If the Iowa polls were an unexpected dose of good news in our polling universe today, DK polling partners PPP provided the buzzkill, adding two races to the potential GOP target list that were largely off the radar screen. Their new polls out of Maine have both freshman Democrat Chellie Pingree and veteran Democratic incumbent Michael Michaud with leads only in the high single digits against their GOP opposition. Pingree leads Dean Scontras by a 48-39 margin, while Michaud is out in front of Republican Jason Levesque by a slightly smaller margin (45-38). Pingree won this open-seat in 2008 by a 55-45 margin, but Michaud has been re-elected easily since his initial win in 2002.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
NY-Gov: Paladino tries to win this election through the mails
Perhaps this is an interesting and novel sign that basing a campaign's late push solely on saturation TV ads really is a thing of the past. The New York Observer has an interesting piece about the final week campaign blitz by wealthy GOP businessman Carl Paladino. Rather than solely taking to the air, as has been standard practice for candidates for years, Paladino is adding a sizeable direct mail component to his final push against former Republican Congressman Rick Lazio. The direct mail, according to the Observer consists of "letters [that] are long—usually clocking in at two-to-three pages—text heavy, and are aimed at older voters for whom sitting down with the day's mail is an important part of the day." Paladino and Lazio square off in next Tuesday's New York primary, though either is likely to be sizeable underdog to Democratic state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo.
RI-Gov: Frank Caprio's ugly news day
It is safe to say that today's news cycle was not particularly swell for near-certain Democratic gubernatorial nominee Frank Caprio. It has become evident in the last 24 hours that the GOP is trying to make Caprio unelectable to his own party. First came the revelation from the RNC that Caprio met with the committee last winter, with the implication that Caprio was coming to discuss running under the GOP banner. Caprio strongly denies that, but it is worth noting that he was locked in what seemed like it would be a bitter showdown with state AG Patrick Lynch at that time for the Democratic nomination (Lynch eventually folded his campaign). Later in the day, GOP candidate John Robataille piled on, dishing that Caprio had met with him personally and tried to entice Robataille into dropping out of the race. Robataille claims that offers were made both through an emissary, and by Caprio himself, over the past month.
Caprio is locked in a strange position, given that he is facing both a Republican candidate (to be determined next week), and a Republican-turned-Independent (former Senator Lincoln Chafee), who for all intents and purposes seems to be running to Caprio's left.
VT-Gov: The feelgood tour of the late Summer
This is how you handle a difficult and close primary election, kids. The five candidates who competed for the Democratic nomination for Governor are touring the state together, even as a recount to determine the nominee is underway. The recount, which is more than halfway completed, has not changed the calculus much at all, which favors Peter Shumlin, who led the semi-official returns by almost 200 votes.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras hits the stage with a quartet of polls today, the majority of them extremely bullish on the GOP. We also get a little example Rasmussen-esque placement of a thumb on the scale--the Illinois Senate poll includes the Green Party candidate by name, but curiously omits the much more conservative Libertarian candidate on the ballot. I'm also not sure I buy a toss-up in West Virginia, either, but with little other polling in the field, it cannot be discounted.
AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) 51%, Rodney Glassman (D) 37%
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 41%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 37%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 53%, Robin Carnahan (D) 43%
WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 45%