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From the diaries -- kos)
Update 9 PM EDT: No big changes. Slight westerly wobble
[Link] RITA IS A DANGEROUS CAT 4 HURRICANE--LANDFALL 10 AM EDT: PORT ARTHUR AT GREATEST RISK; . SEVERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH MONDAY. I believe RITA may regain CAT 5 intensity tonight. Now located near 25.8N/89.5W or 390NM SE of Port Arthur. Storm now moving NW (305°) at 9Kts based on the last 3 hours of fixes.
Eye wall replacement cycle assumed complete; evidenced by the improved satellite imagery signature and the latest RECON reports. The central pressure that had risen to 915mb this morning, is now falling off gradually to 913mb, while the thermal eye wall temp differential has risen to 7°C as of 2:50PM CDT. MAX sustained winds were earlier reported at 130mph surface which is a CAT 4 intensity; but in the past hour, have increased to 133Kts. It is safe to assume winds are currently around 145mph at surface. (Full text below)
Houston Real Time Traffic Info; Local Houston News w/streaming video link; NOLA Local news w/streaming video link; KTRH 740 Houston streaming AM radio
NOAA Three-day Storm Track. Blogs tracking events: Jeff Masters; The Oil Drum.
General Advisory: Hurricane warning imminent: A hurricane warning means the area is expected to experience hurricane conditions within 24 hrs. DO NOT TRY TO OUTGUESS THE PROS USING SHORT TERM TRACKS. It's fine to play around but do not make decisions based on it or advise others to do so. There is a 5% chance it can hit still Corpus, a ~ 30% for Galevston. You want to risk your life on that? Odds are she will make landfall just west of Port Arthur, just east of Galveston, Texas, on Saturday at 10 AM EDT. The next eye wall cycle or two will [probably] determine actual strength at landfall but the storm surge will hang on even if she weakens then.
Special Texas Advisory: San Antonio through Waco and all the way to Dallas-Fort Worth; Now experiencing a massive influx of evacuees. Local sources (HT: PW at DELL) tell me they're running out of everyday items and gasoline even well north of Houston. Estimated at perhaps three million people total and most of them are still in transit, or haven't left yet. This may be the largest civilian movement in recent US history.
Some of these folks have no where to go or won't be able to find rooms. Thousands may run out of gas on I-35 or HWY 290 (And other roads). You may see numerous families walking on the side of the road. This will all put a demand on goods and services in numbers that may simply overwhelm local resources. Be patient, be ready to help your neighbors from the south. There is a chance Rita will shift due west over Harris County and/or Central Texas a day or two after landfall bringing 20 INCHES of rain on. Massive flash flood potential especially for Hill Country.
Storm Surge Advisory: Present track would predict a 20 foot plus storm surge warning from just east of Galveston, through Port Arthur Texas, extending east through Louisiana coast almost to NOLA. This surge could inundate coastal towns and comminities 20 miles inland just east of strike zone. Surge farther east in NOLA and Biloxi has the potential to top ten feet. Even regions as far southwest as Corpus Christi/Rockport, Texas, could experience severe flooding with just a wobble in the storm's path.
Energy advisory: Current track is Offshore Energy Production Nightmare Scenario. Steve Gregory adds:
92 percent of U.S. crude oil production and 66 percent of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico shut-in (combined total from Katrina and now Rita) as of 11:30 a.m. CDT Thursday
Since Katrina, cumulative loss is 28.5 million barrels of crude/ 131.757 bcf of NG (roughly 2% of total U.S. annual production - and counting). Gulf of Mexico platforms still evacuated totaled 605 of 819 manned platforms. Rigs evacuated totaled 87 of 134.
Big threat now to NG production -- plus the shut-down of Port Arthur and the Loop. 20 foot storm surge and angle of attack will tear though a lot of rigs along the NW-SE orientated southwest coast of LA right into NE TX. I don't think the market (especially NG) has priced in the kind of long term loss of NG and infrastructure that could result. NG could go another 20%, oil 5%, but oil will give it all back -- NG may not.
RITA STABILIZES AS VERY DANGEROUS CAT 4 HURRICANE STORM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD -- LANDFALL THREAT PORT ARTHUR AT GREATEST RISK OF LANDFALL IN 44 HOURS. SEVERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH MONDAY. The eye wall replacement cycle that began this morning is nearing completion, as evidenced by the improved satellite imagery signature and the latest RECON reports. The central pressure that had risen to 915mb this morning, is now falling off gradually to 913mb, while the thermal eye wall temp differential that had risen to 4°C this AM, has risen to 7°C as of 2:50PM CDT. MAX sustained winds were earlier reported 130mph sustained surface, which is a CAT 4 intensity -- but in the past hour, have increased to 133Kts in the NW quadrant. It is safe to assume winds are currently around 140Kts in the NE quadrant, or 145mph near the surface -- a very strong CAT 4 intensity. The height of the 700mb surface has fallen 10 meters in the last few hours, to 2329 meters.
The storm is now located near 25.8N/89.5W or 390NM SE of Port Arthur. The storm is now moving NW (305°) at 9Kts based on the last 3 hours of fixes. The crew continues to report a
double eyewall with a diameter of 18NM and 48NM -- but the thermal and pressure trends, along with the improved colder CDO signature -- tend to indicate the eye wall recycling is either completed, or has simply stabilized for now.
The latest 18Z models, including the late , full cycle 12Z run and GFS Ensemble forecast, are in extreme agreement with a landfall very near Port Arthur around 1PM CDT on Saturday. The GFS and NOGAPS are to the right of this landfall envelope, showing the storm crossing the coast right along the LA/TX state line. The models are also in agreement that the storm has peaked in intensity, and will gradually weaken on it's way to the coast -- making landfall as a very strong CAT 3 or low end CAT 4. Intensity forecasts are extremely unreliable in general -- as evidenced by the extraordinary deepening of the storm yesterday. That said -- I believe we will see RITA regain CAT 5 intensity tonight, and then begin a slow weakening during the final 24 hours before landfall -- which will come as a CAT 4.
However, because of RITA's extreme pressure and prolonged period over the Gulf as a CAT 5 storm, the storm surge will be equal to that of CAT 5 hurricane. A tidal surge of 20-22 feet, with Port Arthur most vulnerable to catastrophic storm surge damage -- will likely cover a 20-30 mile stretch of coast from the point of landfall eastward, with 13-18 ft extending to 50-80 miles east of the point of landfall. Gale force winds extend out for over 200 miles from the center -- and gusts to gale force will reach over to the New Orleans area. A tidal storm surge of 4-8 feet will hit the Mississippi Delta region over to Grand Isle, LA.
Of growing concern post landfall is the path of the storm after it makes landfall Saturday. All the global models are forecasting Rita to slow down and become quasi stationary by late Saturday night somewhere along the TX/LA border about 100-150 miles inland. This occurs in response to the rebuilding of a ridge to the north of the storm over the central U.S.. The ridge then continues to expand towards the east and southeast, and is expected to turn Rita towards the southwest later Sunday and into Monday. In the process, and although the winds will calm down -- the storm will likely bring over 48 hours of torrential rainfall to much of Louisiana on southwestward towards the Houston area - after the storm comes inland. This greatly raises the chances of severe flash flooding over inland areas on Sunday and Monday -- with rainfall totals easily exceeding 25" in some locations - with 30" or more quite possible in some isolated locations.
A Storm Surge and Wind Forecast forecast Graphic will be sent out, along with a brief update on the storm itself around 8PM CDT. A full forecast package will be sent around 11:30 tonight after all the 00Z global model arrives.