from my blog, Basie!
The Salem Statesman Journal's Peter Wong has a must-read article on Oregon politics in this morning's paper. Under the headline "Oregon's politics remain divided by rural vs. urban lines", Wong writes of the historical trends in voting patterns and demographic shifts that have increasingly made Oregon a Democratic state.
Like the United States itself, Oregon has its blue-state and red-state divisions that are reflected in regional voting patterns.
But on Tuesday, Oregon voted for a Democrat for president for a record fifth consecutive election.
Oregon had sided with a Democrat only seven other times since it became a state -- in 1868, 1912, Franklin D. Roosevelt's four elections in the 1930s and 1940s, and Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide of 1964.
After being reliably Republican for more than a century, except during the FDR era, why has Oregon become so Democratic in presidential elections?
"Oregon's economy has changed," said Jim Moore, who teaches political science at Pacific University.
"The types of work here now, especially in high technology, attract people who have Democratic leanings. The presence of universities explains the votes in Eugene and Corvallis, but it's the high-tech plants that are the key."
Wong notes that there are other demographic shifts that have favored the Democrats of late, most notably the increase in registered Independents.
Although fewer voters are registering as Democrats or Republicans, one observer said that Democrats are benefiting from the growing number of independent voters, particularly in presidential and statewide races.
"Our non-affiliated voters are a kind of reserve for Democrats," said David Buchanan of Salem, co-author of "The Almanac of Oregon Politics" and a former executive director of Oregon Common Cause.
"It shows there's a hill Republicans need to get over in order to get one of their own elected, at least on this side of the Cascades."
For statewide office in the past decade, U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith of Pendleton is the only Republican to win consistently. Jack Roberts of Eugene was elected state labor commissioner as a Republican in 1994 and re-elected in 1998 to what became a nonpartisan office.
Wong continues to look at the battle for the state legislature--the Democrats haven't held the House since 1991 and hadn't held the Senate since 1995--and how it too is based on the urban/rural divide in the state (which is not dissimilar to the divide in the nation as a whole). Although the Democrats hold every statewide elective office save for one US Senate seat, four of the five members of the US House delegation, and the incoming state Senate by an 18-12 margin, the Republicans will still control the state House by 6 seats for the next biennium and thus will maintain a strong presence in state politics.
Wong additionally lays out the demographic changes in the state over this period of time, examining the rise and decline of the so-called "Reagan Democrats" for example, as well as economic shifts in the Beaver state. Overall, it is a must read for anyone interested in Oregon state politics.
check out my political blog, Basie!