The latest poll on the economy from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps makes one thing very clear:
The voters have a clear and dramatic message for the new Republicans in Congress and the President on the eve of his State of the Union Address: focus on jobs and the economy and show how America is going to be economically successful again. This is not a nuanced poll. If Democrats did not get the message in 2010, voters are ready to send a message again, according to the first Democracy Corps-Campaign for America’s Future survey of 2011.
The media pundits and Washington conventional wisdom say deficit reduction and cutting government spending are the top priorities for the nation; yet, the Republican Congress has prioritized health care repeal and Social Security cuts (which are on the table for the first time.) They could not have it more wrong. It is jobs, stupid.
Of course it's jobs. When you've been unemployed for a year and a half and are about to be foreclosed on, the deficit is hardly at the top of your priority list. That might be a little difficult for The Village to grasp, but certainly politicians who have to talk to constituents on at least a monthly basis should grasp that basic fact.
The polling memo continues [pdf]:
Democrats have improved their position modestly from 2010 when they lost by 8 points. In a named Congressional ballot today, Democrats trail the Republicans by 3 points (44 to 47 per- cent). Democrats only trail by 4 points among Independents. The two national and congressional parties are at rough parity in public image.
But Republicans are about to confront the gap between the mandate they claim and the voters’ priorities. This presents an opportunity for Democrats to define themselves, the choice ahead, and more importantly, to finally show what they believe about the economy and how they plan to achieve growth – above all, how to create jobs now and in the future. Right now, Democrats are basically invisible on the economy and jobs. Republicans are more trusted by 4 points on the economy and the parties are at parity on creating jobs. Democrats are also down 10 points on taxes and 14 points on the budget deficit.
We all know the unemployment rate will exceed 9 percent for some time to come, and will probably remain above 8 percent up to the election. There is no more important fact. In this survey, 17 percent report being unemployed in the past year; 41 percent counting themselves or someone in their immediate family – one half of white non-college men.
But a focus on jobs isn't the only crystal clear picture emerging from the polling:
Republicans say that Social Security is no longer the “third rail’ in politics, but they could not be listening to voters. They have no mandate for cutting Social Security – and the voters have no appetite for it. A large majority of 56 percent opposes the [deficit] commission’s recommendation to raise the retirement age to 69 by 2075. An almost identically large majority oppose the proposal to reduce future benefits of those now entering the labor force. Young people are even more opposed to these proposals than the elderly – in case the Republicans plan to take up inter- generational warfare....
But there are key swing groups where Democrats face continuing problems....
- White seniors continue to pose problems for Democrats. Barack Obama loses white seniors by 8 points (40 to 48) to Sarah Palin and by 25 points to Mitt Romney (35 to 60 percent). The congressional margin is slimmer, but Democrats are losing white seniors by 16 points (40 to 56 percent).
That could have something to do with the incessant and unanswered accusation from Republicans in the 2010 election that Democrats cut Medicare. Imagine the ads if Social Security is cut on the Democrats' watch. Obama and congressional Dems have a pretty clear path before them--make policy choices that will gain the support of the American people or the markets.