Weary of post-mortems and breast-beating over the political theatrics on Capitol Hill today, I wandered over to Yahoo News to see what was going on in the unreality-based community. After amusing myself with the fictional accounts of Gonzales' parade of perjury, I found this little tidbit. We all know it's coming. Well, folks, brace yourselves. Bush's budget is on the way.
A Scandal in the Making
Arizona Republic, 1/6/05
If President Bush wishes to avoid one of those second-term scandals that seem to plague American presidents, he should not be so eager to create one.
Early reports on the president's proposed budget, which is to arrive later this month, indicate that Bush plans to combine outrageous federal revenue projections with a glut of off-book spending.
If left unchallenged, the results may lead to not just jaw-dropping federal deficits. They may lead to huge deficits with massive portions hidden from public view. And that would be scandalous.
The Bush administration habit of playing shameless with budget numbers became apparent last February when it projected a staggering $521 billion deficit. Every budget analyst in Washington knew that figure was far too high. Months later, when the more accurate deficit figure of around $400 billion became public, the administration's gambit came clear: Bush claimed "credit" for having lowered the deficit by more than $100 billion.
We may be about to see a return of that unconscionable budget gamesmanship.
White House officials are suggesting that coming-year revenue increases will prove greater than any the nation has ever known. Those expectations would bolster the president's campaign-season vow to reduce the current operating deficit by half.
The article mentions that the budget more than doubles the current year's revenue increase, and increases projected revenues by 2009 to over $800 billion above current levels, increases never before seen in our history.
Hiding federal spending, meanwhile, is a still bigger concern.
The White House appears intent on omitting from its spending expectations the near-term costs of the president's proposed changes in Social Security, which are substantial: Both the GOP and Democrats expect "transition costs" of $2 trillion or more over the next two decades if the president succeeds in his plan to privatize a portion of Social Security.
Responds Bush spokesman Scott McClellan: "These aren't costs, they're savings."
Well, no, they are not "savings." No more, at least, than a variety of social programs backed by the president's political opponents can be construed as "investments."
Additionally, there are the costs of the war in Iraq, which the administration also has opted to keep off the books. U.S. Rep. Jim Kolbe, R-Ariz., among others, has argued war spending should be part of the budget. He's right.
Wall Street analysts are predicting that the federal shortfall will balloon to $5 trillion over the next decade, contrary to administration claims.
All said, it is not the president's spending proposals, his expectations of revenues or his planned entitlement reforms that are of greatest concern.
The big concern here is the determination of the White House to obscure these astonishing deficits - the massive costs of the president's agenda - and, so, render them far more likely to come to pass than not.
I know we're all exhausted from the EC and Gonzales shows. But it's not too early to start revving up the dudgeon on this one. Because after the big number lies, we'll have the sordid, mendacious, cynical, evil details to ferret out and chew over.
The budget gives us a chance to perform as an opposition party should: use the divide and conquer tactic. Fiscal conservatives are a large and restless minority in the Republican coalition. If Democrats can find some party discipline, they can seize the initiative in the budget process by working with this group, and scuttle Bush's mendacious, reckless budget plans. THAT will be the test of our congressional leadership.
I hate to change the subject, but this one's even more important than our current obsessions. Time for a heads up.