It seems to me this is an important story, even if
Keay Davidson at the San Francisco Chronicle is one of the few who noticed it. There are solar storm clouds on the horizon, and I'd be interested to know if kossacks more versed in the applicable sciences share my concern.
Because we could be in for a near-term future that challenges how our global society and economy currently functions. And that's on top of Everything Else.
We've had solar storms before, but scientists said this week we haven't seen anything like what's approaching since the 1950s, and before that the 1700s. Why is that a problem? It affects radio waves, satellites and electrical grids. And we happen to be more dependent on all of these than ever before.
This week scientists from NASA, the National Science Foundation, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and other agencies announced that the earth is about to be bombarded by radiation from the sun, in what may be the most intense sunspot cycle since the 1950s.
Computer models show it could begin as early as this year, but almost certainly will peak in 2012. This intense period typically lasts 11 years. This radiation can disrupt electrical power and radio waves, knock satellites and spacecraft out of orbit, and bathe certain areas of the upper atmosphere with radiation at potentially dangerous levels.
If all this proves out, there are a couple of aspects that will be different this time than in the 1950s or the 1700s, the last time it was nearly this intense.
The first is the rise of microwave and satellite communication, and our growing dependence on them. Much of the onrush into this dependence has been without planned redundancy (systems that will work when they don't), although there is some redundancy still existing just from inertia (i.e. people like me who still use land line telephones. However, satellites are often still involved.)
As for satellites, the weaker solar storms of the 1970s are suspected to have forced the U.S. Skylab space station to fall out of orbit prematurely.
Then there are power grids, and again a lesser storm knocked one out that cut off power to Quebec.
So if an 11 year period of solar storms could disrupt electrical power, cell phones, satellite links and global GPS, it seems to me we ought to be thinking about the possible consequences. We have no previous experience of the extent, because the current level of radio and microwave dependence is new. There was nothing like it in the 1950s.
The key word there for me is dependence.
The second factor that to my knowledge no one is yet considering is the chemical makeup of the atmosphere, especially in terms of greenhouse gases and ozone depletion. I don't know how relevant this is--that's where those more literate in chemistry and biochemistry etc. could commment. But these are different conditions from those that existed during the last intense solar storm period.
I hope somebody is paying attention to this. So much depends on global communications these days, and the economy of every small town depends on webs of global trade and other economic relationships.
Then there are disruptions that affect safety--not just airliners but medical communications and even medical devices. Not to mention the military. How many more nuclear powers will there be in 2012?
Safety systems in nuclear plants? Not to mention all the daily information now dependent on satellites.
How will this affect efforts to deal with the Climate Crisis, which will likely to be obvious in its effects by 2012?
In a sane society, people would be thinking about this, planning ahead. But then, our leaders apparently don't believe in a global phenomenon that is already well underway. What chance do we have of getting ahead of one that's yet to come?
The difference could be that people now making money might lose money if they don't plan ahead for the solar storms. Whereas in the case of global heating, the people who might make money from building the technology and infrastructure necessary to begin dealing with it, may not be the people making the big money now. Why they don't seem to want to be the businesses of the future is yet another mystery.