Here's the Craig Crawford analysis I mentioned in a thread the other day.
New Math: Magic Numbers and Super Delegates
By Craig Crawford
Congresisonal Quarterly
http://cq.com/corp/show.do?page=crawford/crawford_current
Edwards would do well to keep us out of delegate math class. The numbers simply do not add up for him without a dramatic turnaround in the campaign's trend line. In the past 30 days, Kerry has added 538 delegates to his total, to Edwards' 158. In the past week, Kerry has outpaced Edwards in delegate accumulation by more than 2-to-1.