Okay. I am just not going to live in the pessimists' universe. This scenario is no less plausible than many of those being advanced, and it is more plausible than some.
Keeping in mind the multifarious dynamics in play, and setting aside for a moment the question of superdelegates, here is my forecast for the primaries and caucuses to come. All numbers are of pledged delegates only.
State Dels Winners Cumulative
----- ---- -------------- -------------------
IA 45 K-20,E-18,D-7 K-20,E-18,D-7
Gephardt drops out.
NH 22 K-8,D-6,E-4,C-4 K-28,E-22,E-13,C-4
Lieberman drops out. Gephardt sits on his hands for the nonce. Dean gets grudging comeback-kid buzz.
SC 45 E-16,K-11,C-8,D-6,S-4
OK 40 C-20,D-12,E-8
MO 74 C-30,D-24,K-12,E-8
DE 15 D-7,K-5,C-3
ND 14 D-7,K-4,C-3
AZ 55 D-25,C-20,K-10
NM 26 D-13,C-9,K-4
After mini-Tuesday: D-122,C-100,K-63,E-56,S-4
Kerry almost immediately begins to suffer money troubles again. Edwards burns at a slower rate so he doesn't have quite the same problems -- nor the same benefits.
WA 76 D-36,C-25,K-15
MI 128 D-60,K-40,C-28
D-218,C-153,K-118,E-56,S-4
ME 24 D-12,K-9,C-3
D-230,C-156,K-127,E-56,S-4
Dems. abroad
7 C-4,D-2,K-1
D-232,C-160,K-128,E-56,S-4
TN 69 C-30,D-20,E-19
VA 82 D-40,E-24,C-18
DC 16 D-9,S-4,C-3
D-301,C-211,K-128,E-99,S-8
After having held out for the South to save him and doing so indifferently, Edwards withdraws from the race and does not immediately endorse anyone. Kerry doesn't quite make viability in any of the races and speculation begins to simmer as to whether he can revive his candidacy by Super Tuesday. What was formerly a trickle of former Gephardt supporters becomes a flood to Dean and Clark. The ABD mantle shifts irredeemably from Kerry to Clark.
NV 24 D-12,C-8,K-4
D-313,C-219,K-132,E-99,S-9
WI 72 D-40,K-20,C-12
D-353,C-231,K-152,E-99,S-9
HI 20 D-11,C-8,K-1
ID 18 D-10,C-5,K-3
UT 23 C-12,D-8,K-3
D-374,C-256,K-159,E-99,S-9
Super Tuesday:
Dean, fat with cash and with an unparalleled volunteer force, sweeps CA,NY,MN,MD,RI,CT,and VT. Dean fights Clark to a draw in OH. Clark takes GA and the second-place finish in CA,NY,MN, and MD. Kerry wins only MA and places second only in the New England states. Kerry, while refusing to concede the day after a victory -- if an eminently foreseeable one -- is essentially out of the race. Speculation runs rampant that Edwards will make a dramatic move but, No. 1 on everyone's VP list, he doesn't. By this point, Dean's lead among superdelegates has grown to near-majority proportions.
March 9:
Dean narrowly beats Clark, winning TX and FL to overcome any last bits of buyer's remorse. Kerry, having run a perfunctory campaign in the Southern states, concedes and endorses Dean.
March 10:
Following Clark's concession, Bill Clinton endorses Dean on national TV. Dean leads Bush outside the margin of error for the first time in every national poll.
November 2:
The Dean/Edwards ticket wins the White House by 319 electoral votes to Bush/Cheney's 219, taking the popular vote by 52%-47%-1% and winning the Gore states plus NH, NC, OH, WV, AZ, and NV.