There hasn't been much Canadian news here for a bit, as far as I can see, since the cliffhanger dramatics that saw the government survive a Conservative challenge by one vote a few weeks ago. Things looked pretty grim for the Liberals then, with the Gomery inquiry bringing out new scandals seemingly every day, and Conservative support steadily rising.
Not to worry. In spite of all the fuss and bother, the Con(servative) Party of Canada is headed back towards enjoying the support of the quarter or so of the electorate too dumb, too spiteful, or too selfish to see through their hustle. The chief reason seems to be the personal charm and political skills of the Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, who has had approximately the same effect on his party as a manhole cover would have on a Channel swimmer.
The latest poll figures break down by party as follows:
- Liberals, 34%
- Conservatives, 26%
- New Democratic Party, 19%
- Bloc Quebecois, 13%
- Green Party, 9%
In other words, 74% center and center-left, and 26% right.
With only 40% of the electorate seeing him as a positive figure, Stephen Harper is now the most unpopular major party leader in Canada. Conservatives are pissed off at him for failing to bring down the government, and everyone else detests him for trying to (source).
(Paul Martin of the Liberals is at 44% popularity, Jack Layton of the NDP at 61%, and Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc, officially devoted to the dissolution of the Canadian state, at an astonishing 70%. Only in Canada....)
The recent Supreme Court ruling on Medicare has tossed another grenade Harper's way. It has encouraged the fringe elements of his party, who would like to see "soviet socialist" medical insurance compromised or undermined. He'll have the devil's own time keeping these nuts quiet, and if they are allowed any voice at all, they will kill him politically. Canadians as a whole do not react very kindly to any attempts to undermine a program that is seen as one of the fundamental features of the country. In fact, many people I've talked to welcomed the ruling, not as a way of allowing private medical insurance, but as pressure on the government to fund the present system better.
(One last irony: if Harper extols the Supreme Court's "creation" of a right to timely medical care, he will have an interesting time criticizing its exactly similar "creation" of a right to gay marriage. In both cases, something that was not explicit in the Charter of Rights was held to be implied by its provisions. You can't support this type of reading in one case, and denounce it in another.)