The Wisconsin Democratic Primary on Tuesday, February 17th was an 'Open' Primary -- as opposed to being 'Closed' or 'Partially Open' -- which also allowed Independent and Republican voters to participate. Some of the recent dKos diaries have suggested that based on his performance in the Wisconsin Primary, either John Edwards is attractive to Independent and Republican voters -- as you can read
here and
here -- or implied that the Republicans were simply
making mischief.
WI Exit Polls did show that while John Kerry beat Edwards 48% to 31% among the 62% of voters who were Democrats, Edwards bested Kerry 44%-18% among Republicans (9% of total WI voters). Edwards also had the upper hand among Independents 40%-28% (29% of WI voters).
A total of 4,322 delegates vote at the Democratic National Convention and a candidate needs 2,162 delegates to win the nomination. Kerry is just over a
quarter of the way to the necessary nomination total. After the WI Primary,
CBS News calculates the delegate totals as follows
- Kerry: 635 (467 pledged, 168 unpledged)
- Dean: 234 (102 pledged, 132 unpledged)
- Edwards: 213 (163 pledged, 50 unpledged)
- Clark: 77 (68 pledged, 9 unpledged)
- Sharpton: 16 (13 pledged, 3 unpledged)
- Lieberman: 3 (3 unpledged)
- Gephardt: 2 (2 unpledged)
- Kucinich: 2 (2 unpledged)
The
CBS News 'Washington Wrap' Report of February 18th had the following analysis of the upcoming primaries and caucuses between February 24th-March 9th
- 1,677 delegates will be chosen by March 9, by which date 71% of all pledged delegates would have been chosen.
- Of the total delegates, 591 delegates (35 percent) will be chosen in closed primaries where Republicans and independents will not be able to vote for Edwards (or anyone for that matter).
- 602 delegates (36 percent) will be selected in open primaries, where the liberal and conservative wings of the party can be joined by those outside the party.
- 484 delegates (29 percent) of the Democratic delegates will be selected in partially open primaries where independents can participate but Republicans cannot.
Looking at specific states, the open/closed dynamic paints a complicated picture.
New York, a big prize with 236 delegates, is a closed primary.
Texas, with 195 delegates, is an open primary.
California, the biggest fish of all the primaries with 370 delegates, is a partially open primary that allows unaffiliated voters, but not Republicans, to participate.
Open Caucuses/Primaries
Feb. 24
Hawaii
Idaho
Utah
March 2
Georgia
Minnesota
Ohio
Vermont
March 9
Mississippi
Texas
Closed Caucuses/Primaries
March 2
Connecticut
Maryland
March 9
Florida
Louisiana
Partially Open Caucuses/Primaries
March 2
California
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
SUMMARY OF CAUCUSES/PRIMARIES, February 24-March 9th
Total Delegates: 1,677
Open: 602 (36%)
Closed: 591 (35%)
Partially open: 484 (29%)
The above schedule indicates that Edwards at least has a chance (however slim it may be) to continue attracting independents and disaffected Republicans by healthy margins over Kerry. Given that 65% of delegates will be chosen in states with either an open or partially open primary/caucus during the period February 24th-March 9th, do you believe that John Edwards
- Has a chance of winning a sufficient number of delegates to prevent John Kerry from getting a majority of delegates needed (2,162) to win the nomination prior to the Democratic Convention in July? and
- By the end of the primaries/caucuses in early June, if John Edwards is very close to Kerry in delegates won from February 24th on, how will the unpledged, Super Delegates react to the Edwards momentum at the Convention?