Tomorrow, 6:30. It's time for everyone to lay their cards on the table.
Exactly what cards is each candidate holding, aside from just their share of supporters? What's going to make the difference? I summarize my thoughts below, and I invite anyone to add their comments.
Dean
Harkin's huge organization.
A pretty big union presence.
A jillion devoted youngsters - including, apparently, a lot of people who are new to the process.
By some accounts, the best ground organization in IA's history - certainly an incredibly good one.
Indeterminate expectations - he was a frontrunner for a while, but the story now is Anyone's Race.
Gephardt
A very formidable ground organization.
Hordes of labor supporters.
Wierd expecations - IA is make-or-break, but the latest polls show him a lot closer to "break"
A good knowledge of the IA terrain and the caucusing procedure.
Kerry
A smallish army of veterans.
Any former soft Deanies who may have deserted what looked for the last few days like a mildly sinking ship.
Some good poll numbers.
A moderate ground team. He's an experienced pol, but his shot at winning IA hasn't been real for long enough to assemble a crew that can turn high polls into warm bodies.
Highish expectations - He's become real in the polls from basically nowhere, and his recent quasi-erotic rant about "the surge" didn't help. "I've got a SURGE in my pants!"
Edwards
Good deal of support from rural folks who like his Southern roots, I guess.
Some people who seem turned off by the other candidates' negativity. (Kerry gets some of these too, but boy, isn't Edwards positive?)
The Des Moines Register endorsement. That's got to help out a lot.
From what I can tell, a really mediocre ground team.
Favorable expectations - Despite his late surge, the fact that he was never really looking to compete in IA means a strong second or third would be as good as a win.
Based on these factors, I've got to call this a Dean-Gep-Kerry-Edwards finish. Of course, considering the insane workings of Iowa, who knows. Thoughts?
As an aside: On CSPAN, someone was trying to give Dean a copy of Tuesdays With Morrie to sign. Huh?