Via Public Policy Polling, some nifty preview numbers for what will be one of the highest-profile U.S. Senate races anywhere in 2010.

PPP polled Martinez, first elected in 2004, against Florida's popular Democratic CFO, Adelaide "Alex" Sink.

31% reelect? Ugly, ugly, ugly.

The numbers aren't a lot better for Martinez against Democratic Congressman Robert Wexler:

Although Wexler's name recognition is surely pretty high for a Congressman (he's a regular face on national TV), I doubt it's anywhere near as high as Martinez'. Not only that, but Wexler is no centrist Democrat; he's an uabashed liberal, as evidenced by the name of his book, "Fire-Breathing Liberal".

So do these numbers speak to a Democratic resurgence in Florida, or to Martinez' personal electoral weakness? I'd say it's a bit of both.

Martinez' approval/disapproval numbers are truly dismal: 23% of voters approve of his job performance, 43% disapprove. By comparison, 43% approve of the job Democratic Senator Bill Nelson has done, with 29% disapproving.  

With Governor Charlie Crist unlikely to draw a top opponent for his 2010 race, Martinez is going to be atop the Florida Dems' target list, and likely the DSCC's as well.

The poll also shows Obama defeating McCain in Florida this year:

Inspiring all around, I'd say.

Please excuse the brevity of this diary as details are still emerging this evening.

This story originally hit the wires at 5:04 pm [edt] so I’m wondering why it hasn’t been on the 24/7 cable news channels yet in one of those "Breaking News" graphics or at least on the "crawl" at the bottom of the screen. They’re all too hung up on Senator Craig’s restroom adventures, I suppose.

Anyway, here’s some real news to ponder – especially for the Democrats in Congress who are already thinking about capitulating to the decider guy again next month.

[Update]: h/t - SomeStones - Sen. Mel Martinez (R-fl) and Sen. James Inhoffe (R-Okla) were also reportedly on board.

[Update 2]: I finally caught this story for the first time on network news, on CBS "Up to the Minute" early early morning news show at 3:00 am (edt) As far as I know, it was the first time the story was reported on either network or cable news - almost 10-hours after it broke.

I was just checking my email before going to bed when I read a mass email from my Senator, Bill Nelson (D-FL).

Dear Friends,

I spent most of August on a statewide tour of Florida so I could hear directly from residents and local officials about the issues that concern them most....

What infuriated me, and my response below the fold.

Quinnipiac. 5/29-6/4. Registered voters. MoE 2.9% (3/21-27 results)

In the history of the Q-poll, Martinez has never had an approval rating better than 48 percent, and has generally hovered in the mid- to low-40s. Generally regarded as one of the dumbest senators in the Senate (not surprising given he's a big Bush friend), he's never really won over his state. (Too bad he's not up for re-election until 2010...)

Now the emerging CW is that Martinez is tanking because of his support for the immigration bill.

A new poll shows that U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez's approval ratings with voters have plunged to an all-time low, apparently reflecting his support for a controversial immigration-reform bill.

But do the numbers support that? Let's look at the partisan splits:

Martinez has lost more support among Democrats than he has among Republicans. So while the immigration bill probably did factor in to a good percentage of his drop, it's also likely that the immigration issue isn't the root cause of his loss of support among Democrats.

For that, we probably have to look no further than Iraq.

What's more, most of that drop in support for the Iraq war doesn't come from Democrats -- it's coming from Republicans:

So much of that Republican malcontent might not even be based on the immigration bill, but on their own souring mood on Iraq. And since everyone in Florida knows that Martinez is Bush's useful idiot, the sins of the president get transferred to Martinez himself.

There are no questions about immigration in these Q-polls, so we can't assess how much of an impact that issue may have had in Martinez's radioactive numbers.

But no matter, it's fairly clear that Martinez was hurt just as much, if not more so, by his continued support for Bush's war in Iraq.

Help one of the biggest swing states swing blue!  We have an opportunity to pick up a seat in the Florida Senate!  Not only is this seat winnable, but if we pull it off, the shockwaves you'd send throughout the Republican Party would be HUGE!  

Our candidate, is a very capable woman named Suzan Franks. Please Donate and/or Volunteer Today! If you live in the district, be sure to vote June 26th!

It’s not very often that I find myself praising most of the Democratic establishment not just because I am a tough critic but also because I believe our representative in congress ought to do more. Not just because it's out of goodwill, but frankly it's their job.

They have an obligation they are sworn to uphold, that obligation is to not only the constituents they represent but the democracy and constitution that allows them to serve.

No disrespect to President Bush, but I applaud the actions of Senator Bill Nelson of defining the administration by visiting Syria.

Looks like the AP couldn't resist moving from being a News Service to being an OpEd page on Election Day:

Crist leads strong Florida GOP ticket
AP - Tue Nov 7, 10:19 AM ET

MIAMI - Gubernatorial front-runner Charlie Crist led a Republican ticket bidding for a near-sweep in Florida's statewide races Tuesday, with only U.S. Senate candidate Katherine Harris considered a likely loser among GOP candidates. In the contest to replace disgraced former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley in the 16th district, state Rep. Joe Negron faced Democrat Tim Mahoney.

Poll open in less than 12 hours, and this marks the final edition of FTP. Has it only been about six weeks? Good lord, it seemed like a second job on some days, including today (of course) as we see the final push of polls before the "only poll that matters"...tomorrow.

Cautionary note--I am sure I have missed a few. Sorry. Today was a work day, and I also had a few other obligations today. I got what I could, which is two national polls and over 50 individual races.

Follow me below the fold for the last of it.....

I don't see that anyone has reported this yet. It's showing at the top of recent polls at Pollster.com...

Polimetrix, as part of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which brings together prominent political science researchers from around the country to do a massive national poll just before the election, has a raft of results just released. But I thought the one everyone most wants to hear is this one {pdf}:

Lieberman 48
Lamont 44
Schlesinger 5

DO NOT QUIT!
<more>

We all know Katherine Harris is completely insane, but she's finally outdone herself, with a tape coming to light of an on-air prayer she made on a telephone prayer service asking for God to bring the "hearts and minds" of Jews "into alignment."

Full Audio of the prayer here: http://www.youtube.com/... This comes on top of her previous comments in the campaign where she stated that God did not intend for the United States to be a "nation of secular laws" and that a failure to elect Christians to political office will allow lawmaking bodies to "legislate sin."

More on the flip:

Three new national polls, and polling in 47 individual races, marks the penultimate edition of FTP. In so doing, I will also endeavor to alleviate the hand-wringing that strikes so many folks today (myself included).

Follow me below the fold for the numbers, and the analysis.

New SurveyUSA poll shows that Charlie Crist's once-mighty lead over Jim Davis has dwindled to a mere two points.  Click here to see the poll results.

This is a race many Democrats wrote off from the word go, but this race has looked increasingly winnable in recent weeks.  Jim Davis has run a great campaign, and the Foley scandal seems to have hit the FL GOP pretty hard.  Another recent poll showed Ron Klein leading GOP Rep. Clay Shaw by double digits in one of the country's key House races.

Even better, GOPers are even more discouraged because they have 500-ton anchor Katherine "Go Hide the Votes" Harris running at the top of their ticket.  Keep an eye on this race - it looks like another upset in the making, and further proof of the impact of the 50-state strategy.  GOTV!

Apparently Katherine Harris is the victim of a conspiracy to undermine her Senatorial bid.  But we'll have to buy the book if we want to find out who exactly is out to get her:

Harris wouldn't talk details at a campaign appearance Friday, but she was quoted Friday in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune as saying it would be a "tell-all" book about the conspiracy to undermine her Senate bid.

"You'll have to wait and read it," she said. In the past, Harris has blamed the "party elite," the media and disgruntled staffers for her campaign problems.

http://news.yahoo.com/...

As we head into the final weekend of Election 2006, it is...I must say...an awfully quiet polling day here at FTP.

For the second day in a row, we have no national surveys, and we have new numbers in 32 individual races. While this is not a light day, it is lighter than I expected four days before the election. Oh well, less work for me (!).

The gory (or...not so gory) details after the jump....

A bit late tonight, unfortunately (had to be Dad tonight...the better half is coming back from a business trip).

No new national polls today, curiously, but we do have new numbers in a total of 35 races today. Follow me below the fold for the numbers.

Katherine Harris is running for the Florida Senate seat now held by Bill Nelson.  Nelson has been killing her in the polls, so this race is not on anybody's radar.

But if you'd like to really humiliate her, and help win the FL-Gov, FL-13, FL-09, FL-16, FL-22 and other races in Florida, follow me below the fold...

I couldn't find anything on tv that seemed good, until I remembered that Tim Russert was moderating the debate between Kathrine Harris and Bill Nelson on MSNBC tonight.  

Independent U.S. Senate Candidate Depletes His Campaign War Chest with Daily Ads on 55 Stations

Maitland, Florida, October 31 --- Brian Moore, an independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in Florida, spent the remainder of his campaign war chest on statewide radio spots this last week of the campaign, airing his anti-war message on stations from Miami to Pensacola, and from Jacksonville to Sarasota.  The ads will run on a variety of stations, including news/talk, sports, country western, jazz, hard rock, folk, oldies and classical music programming.