Cautionary note--I am sure I have missed a few. Sorry. Today was a work day, and I also had a few other obligations today. I got what I could, which is two national polls and over 50 individual races.

Follow me below the fold for the last of it.....

Polimetrix, as part of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which brings together prominent political science researchers from around the country to do a massive national poll just before the election, has a raft of results just released. But I thought the one everyone most wants to hear is this one {pdf}:

Lieberman 48
Lamont 44
Schlesinger 5

DO NOT QUIT!
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Follow me below the fold for the numbers, and the analysis.

New poll out tonight from the Des Moines Register:

Democrat Chet Culver leads Republican Jim Nussle, 52 percent to 43 percent, in a new Des Moines Register poll on the governor's race.

Culver has slightly increased his lead among likely voters since last month. Nussle appears to be mounting a late charge, however. During the four days of polling, he made a stronger showing toward the end of the week.

Then theres this:

In a key congressional contest, Democrat Bruce Braley of Waterloo has opened a 21-point lead over Republican Mike Whalen of Bettendorf in eastern Iowa's 1st District. Braley has 56 percent support, compared to 35 percent for Whalen.

Fellow IOWANS: VOTE, Tell a Friend to VOTE!

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No new national polls today, curiously, but we do have new numbers in a total of 35 races today. Follow me below the fold for the numbers.

These are my observations.

We have one new national poll (and 'tis a glorious one, if you are Democrat), and we have a heaping helping of individual race polling (nearly 40 races).

Follow me past the threshold for all the numbers.

The clincher is that he seems to have a better temperament for the job. That is an important consideration if you're hiring a new governor and you expect him to lift state government above the partisan bickering that has blighted Iowa politics in recent years.
Chet Culver is the choice.

more below the fold

A couple of interesting poll dynamics today, with none of them proving to be particularly good for the GOP. In the fifteen races today, only three of them show a momentum shift to the GOP (and one of the three is an internal poll). In total, ten of them indicate Democratic momentum, and two of them indicate neutral momentum.

All the numbers for your digestive pleasure...right on the other side of the jump.

The only national numbers come from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic firm. They have Democrats up by eleven in the generic ballot test, and they have the Bush job approval resting at 39%.

Follow me on the other side for numbers in a total of 18 individual contests.

Democrats now lead the named-congressional horserace by 13 points, a surge in support that takes the Democrats up to 54 percent of the vote and doubles their lead from two weeks ago. For the first time, the Democrats' lead in the named-ballot is above the generic lead, suggesting the candidates are adding to the Democratic trend.  

In the U.S. Senate, the Democrats have also made gains in the Senate races, noting that in the competitive Republican-held Senate seats, the named-Democrats are up by 10 points (52 to 42 percent).

There will be a wave on November 7th, with the Iraq issue critical to its strength. Strategically, we think Democrats need to assume this is inevitable and then focus on the few things that take the election into more and more districts and states. The Democrats need to talk about the change they will bring, starting with major efforts to achieve energy independence.

Iraq is the main driver of the meltdown for the Republicans, underscoring Tom Friedman's commentary yesterday that we may be witnessing "the jihadist equivalent of the Tet offensive." The electoral crash has been accompanied by a surge in anger over Iraq, reaching epic proportions: only a quarter of likely voters now have positive feelings about the waequivalent of the Tet offensive." The electoral crash has been accompanied by a surge in anger over Iraq, reaching epic proportions: only a quarter of likely voters now have positive feelings about the war.  

ARIZONA (Senate)

SurveyUSA. 10/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.6% (9/16-18 results)

Rasmussen. 10/15. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/18 results)

I detect a faint pulse on this race.

COLORADO (4th CD)

SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.4% (9/18-20 results)

I've heard ominous rumblings about this race and these numbers seem to confirm that things might not be going well.

FLORIDA (Governor)

Mason-Dixon. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/20-22 results)

ILLINOIS (Governor)

Rasmussen. 10/15. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/7 results)

INDIANA (2nd CD)

Research 2000 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/15-17 results)

IOWA (Governor)

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/11-12 results)

MAINE (Governor)

Rasmussen. 10/17. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/18 results)

With Granholm's recent surge in Michigan, Baldacci is now the most endangered Democratic incumbent at the governor, house, or senate levels.

MARYLAND (Governor, Senate)

SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (9/17-19 results)

NEW YORK (20th CD)

Sienna College (PDF). 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (No trend lines)

This poll should temper some of the giddiness over numbers showing Democrats sweeping out most of the GOP dreck in New York state. It doesn't mean that this poll is right and the others showing Gillibrand leading are wrong. It just means that polls are polls, and oftentimes they are wrong.

WASHINGTON (8th CD)

SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.7% (9/24-26 results)

This race appears static and neck and neck. GOTV will determine the winner. If you are in the Seattle area, you've got your mission -- get Burner over the finish line first.

WISCONSIN (Governor)

St. Norbert College for Wisconsin Public Radio. 10/9-16. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Race tracker wiki: AZ-Sen CO-04 FL-Gov IL-Gov IN-02 IA-Gov ME-Gov MD-Sen MD-Gov NY-20 WA-08 WI-Gov

There is a lot in the story, but this was my favorite part:

Sweeney was quoted in the Saipan Tribune on Jan. 15 [2001] as saying reports of poor working conditions in the CNMI were overblown, and that he had seen worse sweatshops back home in New York. Carlson said Sweeney was "absolutely not" aware of any severe mistreatment of workers or forced prostitution before he made these comments.

U.S. Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., a longtime champion of legislation to change CNMI wage and immigration laws, traveled to the islands in 1998 [snip].

Problems were obvious "unless you choose not to look at the facts on the ground," Miller said, adding: "A blind pig could run into the human rights violations and the exploitation of workers on the islands."

That sums up the modern Republican Party: Blind Pigs.

And we have three weeks to take them out.

To the jump...

As has been the norm as of late, there are no new national numbers over the weekend, although we did see some erosion in the president's approval in the Rasmussen tracking poll (it has receded from 44% to 42% over the last two days).

Meanwhile, we do have new polling numbers in a total of 17 individual races, including some really surprising numbers. It is VERY hard to find Republican momentum in these numbers. Follow me across the fold for the numbers.

Market Shares for the Chicago Tribune. 10/8-11. Likely voters. (9/7-10 results)

Illinois voters are unhappy with Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, but they like Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka even less, giving the incumbent the advantage less than a month before the election, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

IOWA (open)

Seizer for the Des Moines Register. 10/8-11. Likely voters. MoE 3.5% (9/10-13 results)

Among likely voters backing Culver, 82 percent say their minds are made up. Among Nussle's supporters, 73 percent say they've locked in their vote.

While the vast majority of likely voters remain loyal to their party's gubernatorial candidate, independents now prefer Culver over Nussle, 43 percent to 33 percent. In the mid-September Iowa Poll, Nussle had a 2-point edge over Culver among independents.

MICHIGAN

Seizer for the Detroit Free Press. 10/8-11. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (8/28-30 results)

Women prefer Granholm 54% to 37% in the new poll, more than twice the margin in August. Men are evenly split. In the five-county metro Detroit area, Granholm went from a 10-point lead in August to an 18-point lead now.

EPIC/MRA for the Detroit News. 10/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/2-3 results)

MINNESOTA

Star Tribune. 10/6-11. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (9/13-15 results)

As in previous polls, both candidates are supported by more than eight in 10 members of their own parties. But DFL voters are more engaged in the election than Republicans, with 69 percent of them professing a great deal of interest compared with 54 percent of Republicans.

Among independent voters, Pawlenty's 10-point advantage in September has dwindled. Pawlenty now has 35 percent to 34 percent for Hatch [...]

Hatch has gained ground on Pawlenty among women and more affluent voters. He now has a 52 percent to 32 percent lead among women compared with 43 percent to 40 percent in September.

Among voters who make $100,000 or more the two are now even. Last month, Pawlenty led 57 percent to 30 percent.

Geographically, Hatch is strong in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. He polled 54 percent -- double what Pawlenty polled. The two are closer, 43 percent for Pawlenty to 40 percent for Hatch, in the balance of the metro area and are even at 42 percent in the rest of the state.

Race tracker wiki: MI-Gov MN-Gov IL-Gov IA-Gov

Democrat Chet Culver has moved ahead of Republican Jim Nussle in a hotly contested governor's race that was tied a month ago.

A new Des Moines Register poll shows Culver leading Nussle, 46 percent to 39 percent, among Iowans who say they definitely plan to vote, or who have already voted, in the Nov. 7 election.

Meanwhile, Gallup gave us a delicious late-night treat late yesterday (after the Thursday FTP had already fallen away). So, we will include that in today's Following the Polls, for those who missed them. Also, we see numbers in a total of 19 individual races. Time to head below the fold....