Never had a chance, but not because of Trump
Well, the results are in, they are to many people largely unexpected, and folks are looking for answers. Well, some people are looking for answers. Some already have the answer in their heads and they are working real hard to come up with the data that proves them right. Pulling up crosstabs and exit polls to find the proof of a “whitelash” or the “hidden Trump voter”. It’s all so much bullshit. The truth is simple, and it’s staring us all right in the face. Hillary Clinton was a lousy candidate, especially in this climate, and nominating her cost us this race. And I don’t need crosstabs to prove it. The numbers that tell the story are the most fundamental — and widely accessible — numbers in politics.
First things first…
IT DOESN’T MATTER WHO THE GOP NOMINEE IS
Wait, what? What does that mean? Of course it matters! There are only two (relevant) people running for the office, how can it not matter who one of them is? Well, there are two reasons for this:
- The GOP has become a party with no appeal whatsoever to people who aren’t Republicans or “Independents” who always vote Republican.
- The Republicans and “Independents” vote. Always.
And the result of this rigidity is plain to see (my source is wikipedia):
- In 2004, George W. Bush earned 62.0 million votes
- In 2008, John McCain earned 59.9 million votes
- In 2012, Mitt Romney earned 60.9 million votes
- On Tuesday, Donald Trump earned 59.8 million votes, with some votes still outstanding
Question: where is the whitelash? Where is the hidden voter? Where is the army of altRight neoNazi zombies who have never voted before, worked into a frothing rage by Donald Trump’s racist rants, and voting for the first time, having descended onto the American political scene to change the course of American politics forever and ever? Where is the unwinnable fight?
Simply put, it doesn’t exist. It’s all a myth, made up by people who supported Hillary in the primaries because she was the one who was going to keep us safe from Donald Trump and the GOP, and now that she has fallen on her face, they need to explain to us how, no, it’s not HER fault (and by extension, their fault) — no Democrat (especially not Bernie!) was winning this election, because Donald Trump had white America’s heart at “Mexicans are rapists.”
What a colossal bunch of self-serving bullshit. This election, like every presidential election, was there for the Democrats to win. All they needed to do was to put forth a candidate with an inspiring and optimistic vision for the future, to turn out our base. When that happens, like with Obama in ‘08 (69.5 million votes), there are plenty of votes out there to defeat Trump or McCain or Romney or Cruz or Kasich or whoever. When it doesn’t happen, when we nominate some establishment stiff because it’s their “turn", like in 2004 (59.0 million votes for Kerry), or on Tuesday (60.0 million for Clinton), then we have a dogfight on our hands, and one in which we are at the disadvantage, due to the nature of the Electoral College.
It doesn’t matter who they are, or what they’ve said or done. If you win the GOP nomination, you can expect 60 million votes in the general election. You have to give it to the Republicans — they are very goddam consistent.
This was not a situation that was unwinnable. This was not a situation where Donald Trump was going to the White House, no matter who his opponent was. Rather, the absolute opposite is true: Hillary was never going to win this. She didn’t win against Trump, she wouldn’t have won against Cruz, or Kasich, or Ben Carson, or Carly Fiorina, or whoever else the GOP put out there, because no matter who it was, they were getting the same number of votes. 60 million. Just like John McCain got, just like Mitt Romney got, just like George W. Bush got.
And why couldn’t Hillary do better than she did?
www.realclearpolitics.com/…
I really can’t believe I even have to say this. I mean, I feel like I’m trying to explain to a room full of mathematicians that 2+2=4. But here goes — if you’re a politician, your net favorability is the most important number in your life. More important than your IQ, credit score, and your net worth combined. If you’re a Democrat running for President, that number determines whether you win or lose. It really is that simple. And this cycle, we nominated a woman with the worst f/u score in the history of polling to ever get the nomination of a major party, save for her opponent. But, I remind you, IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT TRUMP’S RATING IS. As the GOP nominee, he gets 60 million votes, guaranteed. No more, no less. We were told it didn’t matter what Hillary’s favorables were. And now the same people who told you that are telling you about the whitelash, or the hidden voter, or whatever.
www.realclearpolitics.com/…
People vote for candidates they like. People like Bernie. People dislike Hillary. We backed the wrong horse. Period.
Let’s get specific. This election was lost in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Union territory. At least, it used to be.
Imagine you’re a factory worker in one of those states. 20 years ago, Bill Clinton pushes for and passes NAFTA. Then they pack up your factory and ship to Mexico, or Canada, or wherever. Now, 20 years later, that guy’s wife is running for POTUS. She has flip-flopped on TPP, and her buddy Terry McAuliffe is out there telling anyone who’ll listen that as soon as she’s in the Oval Office, she’ll flip right back. Donald Trump says NAFTA was a disaster. Donald Trump says he’ll never pass TPP. Donald Trump says he’ll protect your job.
Now, you know a bullshit artist 1% predator when you see one — you are union, after all, and a Democrat. But how could you vote for the candidate who you think ruined your life over the guy who is saying everything you have ever wanted to hear a politician say (about free trade, anyway)? So what do you do? You stay the fuck home. Like 10 million other people. And you get what we got.
Look, Hillary voters, I’m not looking for an apology. You made the choices you made for reasons that made sense to you at the time. But you need to acknowledge that you made a mistake, and learn from that mistake. Because, if four years from now, we’re still telling stories about the mythical hidden Trump voter to absolve Hillary Clinton for her failure, and we nominate another establishment stiff (or, God forbid, Hillary Clinton again), then we’ll be right back here in November 2020, looking for another story to make up about how Donald Trump got himself reelected (with 60 million votes).
