Using a few assumptions, Kerry and Edwards are slightly ahead in their quest to eliminate the forces of darkness.
Assumption 1. Bush's approval rating (Zogby 47%) makes him nearly unelectable. Conventional wisdom is that he is unbeatable above 53% and unelectable below 46%. This makes him a longshot.
Assumption 2. According to EJ Dionne of the Post, there are two majorities in this election. The majority that doesn't want Bush elected and the majority that isn't convinced that they want Kerry either. This assumption is that Kerry doesn't need to beat Bush in the debates; he simply needs to present himself as a worthy alternative. He needs to convince the fence-sitters.
Assumption 3. Because of changing paradigms, John Kerry will beat the polls by 2-4 points. This election will be won or lost on the ground and, to date, we're blowing the bad guys away. The NY Times, as many of you have read, reports that we're beating them big time in registering new voters. Using the assumption that Kerry is only a point or two behind (Rasmussen/Zogby/CSM), he is, then, ahead if he beats the polls by these 2-4 points. According to electoral-vote.com, Bush is under 50% in every swing state but Missouri, Colorado and Wisconsin, and I'm not buying the Wisconsin poll. Every one is still winnable.
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