(In the final days of an election, there is so much information from so many races, it's difficult to stay on top of every story and understand the subtle dynamics often at play on the ground. Thankfully, we have an expansive 50-state blogosphere to match our 50-state strategy. Over the last two weeks of the campaign, we've asked leaders of the state blogospheres to provide insight into late developments and share the stories of their states in a series we're calling "Listening to the Locals." SusanG)
Pain is inevitable. Suffering is optional.
--Kathleen Casey
As a Georgia Democrat, I recall that reality all to clearly on Nov. 8th, 2006. While most of the country was riding the wave of Democratic resurgence in the Congress, Georgia had re-elected the first Republican Governor since Reconstruction and Republicans easily rolled up the Lt. Governorship. It was a bitter crescendo to a creeping sting of losses. An ending to a gradual decline in the electoral success of the once dominate Democratic Party of Georgia.
The question was not one of pain; it was of the scope of suffering to come. Just how long would it take for our state party to turn around -- at precisely the time that our national party was busy building a new majority?
My name is Jon Flack, and I write as flackattack at the Georgia progressive blog Tondee's Tavern. The national media and blogoshere has unexpectedly showered attention on Georgia lately, and yeah, we were a bit caught by surprise ourselves.
I've come to think about this years election as an accelerating event to the plans laid down after our '06 loses. Georgia exemplifies in practice the convergence of a state party focused on it's own 159 county strategy and a presidential campaign committed to a 50 state one. Add to the mix an economic factor and what you have is a state that might just pull off a few surprises on the 4th.
The Fundamentals Of Our Party Are Strong
After the 2006 elections, our state party also held an election to chose the next state chair. With the election of Jane V Kidd, the DPG set in motion a plan to grow the party in the field. It has harvested some pretty impressive results. Note that this kind of 159 county strategy was in motion before Campaign for Change came to town.
Consider:
- The state party has run a fulltime canvass since last August, and a call center since February.
- At this time in 2007, the DPG had ~18,000 IDs in the voter file. Today they have over 1 million.
- At the beginning of 2008, the DPG invested for the first time in field offices.
When you start to ponder the place we find ourselves in today, it's hard to argue that the re-building of the party infrastructure - coupled with the rapid intensification of early investment by the Obama campaign - has enhanced our capacity to be competitive. Whether or not we all get an early nights sleep with a predictive victory in Georgia, this election has boosted the efforts to create a lasting ability to run and win as Democrats all across the Peach State.
The Early Voting Avalanche
There have been countless mentions of the early vote here on kos and in the media generally. Yes, the polls are filled and the lines are long (and yes, MisHandle is responsible for making it worse). African American turnout has been - and continues to be - very impressive. Here is a little peek under the covers of more goodness beyond the top-line numbers released by the SoS.
(Crosstabs - Early voting through 11/29, via Chris Huttman)
Voting History
| Has Not Voted in Either 2004 or 2006 General Elections | 385,181 | 22.6% |
| Voted General Election 2004 Only | 337,200 | 19.8% |
| Voted General Election 2006 Only | 77,567 | 4.58% |
| Voted General Elections 2004 and 2006 | 900,567 | 52.95% |
So, while it is true that the composition of the early vote is primarily people who will vote with or without an early voting opportunity, more than 20% of the early vote has come from new voters.
Presidential Primary Breakdown
| Did Not Vote in 2008 Presidential Primary | 743,195 | 43.6% |
| Voted 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary | 531,544 | 31.2% |
| Voted 2008 Republican Presidential Primary | 383,804 | 25% |
The early vote in the bank now is growing and the enthusiasm gap amongst Democrats in Georgia is real. However, if you are looking for a cautionary number, the expanded youth vote is not showing up quite yet with only 11.6% of early voters in the 18-29 bracket.
Martin and Down Ballot
Jim Martin continues the fight to retire Saxby Shameless. I don't think I can express in words the contempt, disgust, and bitter disregard Georgia Democrats have for Senate Chambliss. This races continues to be tight, and thanks to the kos community and 02B efforts, Martin continues to run strong against a massively funded effort by Chambliss, the NRSC, and the recently engaged Freedom's Watch. Personally, I share the view that we are looking at a early December run-off for a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. Hang in to your hats folks. This one has legs.
Make no mistake, Chambliss and his crew are worried. In my neck of the woods (Forsyth County) just yesterday, the always classy Chambliss had this to say:
The Republican is outwardly confident, but there's urgency in his voice as he tours North Georgia, trying to boost turnout in his predominately white base: "The other folks are voting," he bluntly tells supporters.
Take that in as you like.
Below the radar sits a couple of races that are particularly interesting. Both races are hard fought battles with Democratic challengers with little resources. They represent the kind of fighting spirit we are seeing from candidates across the state.
The most surprising, and refreshing, is PSC candidate Jim Powell. Powell won his primary with over 80% of the vote after Secretary of State MisHandel threw Powell from the ballot over a bogus residence challenge (um, I see a pattern here). Powell sued, was reinstated, and continues to fight on in the face of a still unresolved case that sits before the state supreme court. All that to face Lauren "Buba" McDonald, a party switcher and former shill for energy companies PSC commissioner, whose has come back for another bite of the apple after stepping down for a failed run for state Senate.
Bill Gillespie in GA-01 has the unenviable task of running against Rep. Jack "Slappy" Kingston. Bill is the real deal and is perhaps the strongest Democratic challenger the 1st has seen in decades. This is what the Savannah Daily News had to say:
Frankly, Jack began to lose our support last Feb. 27 when he appeared on the Dan Abrams show and said it was okay to "question Sen. Barack Obama's patriotism because he doesn't regularly wear an American flag lapel pin."
[...]
Yet, he continues to use such tactics, seeking to smear his opponent Bill Gillespie in this race, accusing him of lying about his educational degrees and other achievements, despite two news organizations having confirmed that Gillespie's resumé is accurate.
Savannahian Bill Gillespie is a highly educated, fiscally conservative Democrat, a war hero of the Iraq War, a recipient of the Bronze Star and a candidate with a vision of how to bring jobs back to the 1st District in manufacturing, alternative energy and the timber industry.
Whatever happens in Georgia on election night, the energy and hard work of thousands will live on in a re-born party looking at long term success. Thanks for letting me share a small piece of that with you.
Read: Tondee's Tavern
Give: The Tavern's Finest
Update: Score one for the good guys. Late this afternoon, the state Supreme Court affirms Jim Powell's place on the ballot. The money quote:
"We agree with the superior court that the secretary committed an error of law that authorizes reversal of the secretary's decision," wrote Justice Robert Benham, for the entire court.
Smack!
