Cross Posted at Tondee's Tavern
As candidate speculation continues, I'll be tracking the potential candidates, rumored or actually taking the steps to run, for Senate in 2008 against incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss.
This is updated on an "as needed" basis, and community feedback and input in the comments would be appreciated.
In the latest revision, we have 2 downgrades in probability. Rep. Jim Marshall and Jim Butler each take one step down in probability of a '08 Senate run. The only "up arrow" in the bunch is Vernon Jones (*sigh*).
Jump!
Democratic Candidate Barometer
For now, people who appear on this list are here only because of speculation, buzz, or because I think they pose an interesting choice. Since it is still quite early on, we will keep track of all of them. When the plans for each person become more apparent, or they actually declare, I will skinny down the list to only those making noise. The arrows represent the likelihood of a candidacy at this point. When the field is set the arrows will change to candidate viability.
1st Tier
Jim Marshall
Rep. Jim Marshall, coming off a squeaker race in GA-8, represents a strong potential candidate who is often mentioned as a tough challenge to Saxby should he run. While no definitive statements from his office have been made, several winks, hints, and other kibitzing rumors are floating about. The commentariat at this pont is more focused on the possible impacts to the House seat (GA-8) should he take on the Senate race.
Money
According to Tray.com, Marshalls cash on hand was 352K as of his 1Q filing, with left over campaign debt of $7,500. The latest filings is not an impressive number for someone considering a run for the Senate (only ~150K raised in the Q). Unless he starts ramping up phis fundraising efforts, this will be a clear sign he will not make the race. A recent meet and greet luncheon hosted by the Shailendra family was a public embrace by some fundraisers in the party for a Marshall run.
Marshall’s 2005-2006 Total Receipts came in at 1.6 million. Whether he can translate that into a 10-15 million dollar war chest to wage a statewide battle is unknown at this point.
Power Base
Marshall is a decidedly moderate to conservative politician. As a member of Congress, Jim Marshall is to the right of most Democratics in the House. His vote against the House resolution condeming the Iraq surge plan (only 1 of 2 Democrats to vote against the resolution), and his recent votes against a timetable, demonstrates his willingness to stray from the party line on significant matters.
His base of support in Macon makes his candidacy attractive in that he can compete for white conservative voters in Middle Georgia with real credibility. That is a characteristic that can not be said for others interested in the race with the possible exception of Jim Butler. Marshall’s political and ideological roots, and how they play in the typically more liberal power bases of the state party will be worth watching in a primary campaign if he chooses to run.
Open Seat Concerns
Given the closeness by which we was re-elected, GA-8 would be a prime take over opportunity for Republicans should he enter the race. Re-inforcing that view was Marshall's own office, recently stating the seat would likely flip if Rep. Marshall ran for the Senate.
Shirley Franklin
Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin is only on this list because she is always mentioned as a possible challenger. Mayor Franklin continues to be a rock star of the state party and receives high praise from just about everyone on her performance as Mayor. She was recently appointed to a UN panel to boot.
The only problem? I seem to recall reading that Shirley has no plans or intentions of running for any office beyond her current term as Mayor. I can't find that attribution, but I'm pretty sure I remember reading it somewhere. Of course plans change, and we will keep her here until we see something definite.
On a personal note; Mayor Franklin might be the most enjoyable to watch pol. She is an incredible dynamo, and I would just love to see her tear off something from Saxby...
Mike Thurmond
Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond is on the list for the same reason as Mayor Franklin. Commissioner Thurmond is frequently mentioned as a possible candidate, but nothing concrete is on record regarding his future elective office intentions.
Recently, Thurmond has been used as an example, given the Obama attention, as a transformative African American candidate who knows how to pull large numbers of white voters. His success in the '06 labor commissioner race continued to demonstrate that appeal.
Who knows what Mike is really up to?
Thurbert Baker
Attorney General Thurbert Baker is also on the list because he is often mentioned as a potential candidate. If Baker chose to run, he would likely be the immediate front-runner. AG Baker is respected and apporved of by a large bi-partisan majority in the state, based on his performance as AG, and he would be a formidable challenger.
The Senate race? The general buzz is that Baker is waiting for the Governors race in 2010. Having just secured re-election, and as the current President of the National Association of Attorneys General, Baker is likely comfortable watching this race while getting ready for a future run at the Governors Mansion.
Second Tier
Rep. Sanford Bishop
Rep. Bishop makes the list because of I believe Rep. Bishop represents one of the strongest potential candidates we could field against Saxby.
Until Rep. Bishop, or his staff, makes a declarative statement, I will continue to talk about why I like this guy in the race.
Money
According to Tray.com, Rep. Bishop has $336,680 cash on hand with zero debt. Rep. Bishop's total amount raised in the 2006 cycle was $761,423. Those '06 numbers are somewhat symptomatic of a safe incumbent who was comfortably re-elected. The question is can Bishop raise the sums of money required to wage a statewide race against a well funded incumbent?
Power Base
His geographical location, general ideology, and proven constituent service is why I believe Sanford Bishop is a serious threat should he decide to run.
Rep. Bishop has represented GA-2 for more than a decade. GA-2 is a SW Georgia district with a 40%+ African American population. Agricultural and rural in nature, Sanford Bishop has consistently represented the interests of the rural south Georgia Congress, as well as the military base that is in part of his district.
Rep. Bishop is a conservative Democrat on social issues and a mainstream Democrat on fiscal issues. It should be noted that he has support from the union community and from agricultural interests.
Match-up Considerations
The strategic strength of Rep. Bishop in a race against Sen. Chambliss is compelling.
Rep. Bishop has the ability to do what many Democrats in the state can’t. Primarily, he can stand "toe-to-toe" with Saxby on issues where Sen. Chambliss has his strongest perceived strengths. Rep. Bishop can speak effectively to rural Georgia, agriculture concerns, military & intelligence policy, and has the ability to neutralize, or at least seriously mitigate, his potential challenger’s most compelling assets.
Consider this. If Rep. Bishop could create an electoral map where South Georgia was competitive, it would put tremendous pressure on Chambliss to outperform an already strong north part of the state. While Saxby would no doubt win North Georgia by large margins, it is already "tapped out" (it is just not going to get higher than it did in '04) and that is not his traditional center of power. It creates a very favorable geographic battle, and one that is essential for our party in the larger scheme of things.
The question that is mostly likely relevant today is whether Rep. Bishop is ready to leave a relative safe seat and a new found majority status in Congress for this race?
I hope he gives it some thought.
Jim Butler
Jim Butler continues to be a novelty candidate for the race. Jim Butler is a successful Columbus based trial attorney who flirted with a possible run in 04'. Butler is also a major party fundraiser for the party.
Money
Jim Butler would have the ability to tap substantial sources of campaign cash and/or self-fund a campaign.
Issues
His positions on a range of issues are unknown. Earlier this year Butler waded into state party election politics advocating a strong relationship between the state party and possible candidates and elected officials.
Butler has confirmed his interest in the race, and said at the time he will likely make up his mind by April '07. He has been pretty quiet, and I have an unconfirmed report from a party insiders who believes Jim Butler will skip the '08 race.
Charles Brewer
Charles Brewer, founder and frm. CEO of MindSpring Inc., is another novelty candidate on the radar screen. The specualtion at this point is just internet buzz.
An obvious strength in this race would be Brwers personal wealth. Brewer has since shown a "green streak", launching an environmentally friendly real estate development company, Green Street Properties, and is well respected in the progressive community.
Third Tier
Vernon Jones
Vernon Jones, chief executive of DeKalb, has filed the necessary paperwork to form an exploratory committee, and has started raising campaign cash for a possible run.
Money
Pathetic. No, Really Pathetic. $8,626 on hand after raising $17,900 in the 1Q.
Vernon Jones is "conservative Democrat", (heh!) who has encountered a fair bit of controversy during his tenure in DeKalb. He continues to show a flair in both style and attitude as CEO.
Jones may have the ability to pull a large percentage of African American support in a primary. His general election prospects would be a much larger uphill battle. Jones would need to extend his support beyond DeKalb, and/or show an ability to raise a significant sum of money before he is even considered a strong challenger. That is something he is not likely to do.
Given that reality, recent speculation is that Jones will abandon a run for Senate and challenge incumbent Rep. Hank Johnson, a rumor Jones denies.
Cathy Cox
Cathy Cox is enjoying her new gig as President of Young Harris College, and has made no mention of any future plans to run for anything.
While Cathy Cox still enjoys the admiration of voters support in pockets of the state (I consider myself in that camp even though I supported Taylor), her post- primary shunning of Taylor and general lackluster performance in the primary lingers as a barriers to a potential run for Senate.
Cathy Cox has also been the product of state politics, and her views on national issues are largely unknown. Those views would be tested in a primary, and even more so in a general contest. That would create an ideological portrait of Cox whichh has not been tested against some of her more moderate supporters.
The Rest
Out of Contention
Max Cleland
Pat Mitchell
Saxby Chambliss
The incumbent senator is cruising with 2.8 million CoH.