I'm going to help Rick Davis out

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Monday October 20, 2008 · 5:10 PM PDT

2008/10/20 · 17:10

No, seriously. Because he's so concerned about donations to Obama under $200 that don't need to be made public, I will donate $201, despite not being employed at present, and make sure that every Obama supporter I know that has made a small donation adds to their contribution to make it a large one.

As a lobbyist with umm, well, curiously lucrative and conflicted connections, he should be far more comfortable with large donations than small ones, right?

Poll

91 votes Show Results

What's the best way to help Rick Davis?

91 votes Vote Now!

What's the best way to help Rick Davis?

Make sure you and everyone you know donates over $200

27 votes

Accept $2 million from Freddie Mac so he has company

12 votes

Buy $201 worth of pie and throw it at his smarmy face

52 votes

Not about Wall St or Main St, but YOUR Street.

lindsayin72

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Monday September 29, 2008 · 3:30 PM PDT

2008/09/29 · 15:30

OK, I'll gladly grant that this bill isn't the best thing in the world, but what could continue to happen in the overall economy is far worse. Anyone who gets joy from Wall Street taking a bath should have another nip at that wood alcohol jug today, as the equity markets (which may include substantial parts of your union or state worker or company's pension plan, 401 (k), or IRA) lost a multiple of $700 billion today alone--the MSCI Global Index showed a loss of $1.7 TRILLION worldwide today.

The failure of the bill today could have far-ranging impacts that have nothing to do with Wall Street. I've spoken with several people in the credit markets today, and they all say the same thing: There are no credit markets. When credit markets seize up, as they have, banks don't loan to other banks. They don't loan to large businesses. They don't loan to mid-sized businesses. They don't loan to small businesses. They sure as hell don't loan to people.

You want a car loan? A mortgage? A credit card? Borrow a little money to fix up your gas station? Nah.

In the early 1930s, after FDR saved the banking industry, banks were still afraid to loan money, significantly extending the Great Depression.

lindsayin72

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Tuesday September 23, 2008 · 1:56 PM PDT

2008/09/23 · 13:56

Oh, nothing really, other than that this reflects all four dailies as of today, rather than a bunch from yesterday. R2K remains dead flat, just the most random of movements in individual sectors too minor to mention, other than net favorables, where Obama gained a couple and McCain lost a couple, but if one candidate is really +21 and the other is +1, then the race isn't this close, so skip it. Rasmussen has moved from a statistical tie to an absolute one, but again, big whoop, we're in a holding pattern until the debate or further bizarre comments. Gallup has another point move back into the undecided column, as Obama moves down from 48 to 47 with no increase in McCain's numbers. Could just be rounding. Obama has slipped three points in Gallup since he reached 50% on Saturday, but McCain hasn't gained over that time. I don't want to put too much faith in any single number, but I am curious as to why and/or how Obama has lost a point in each of the last three days. They don't discuss internals on a daily basis, so there's no way of figuring it out.

Diageo/Hotline Obama 47 McCain 43 (47-42)
Gallup Obama 47 McCain 44 (48-44)
R2K Obama 49 McCain 43 (49-43)
Rasmussen Obama 48-McCain 48 (48-47)

lindsayin72

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Monday September 22, 2008 · 11:38 AM PDT

2008/09/22 · 11:38

It feels as though Obama's bump last week was due largely to the growing economic crisis. As public perception over the weekend was that the administration had moved to stave off disaster, some voters, whether they approved of the moves or not, may have shifted slightly in McCain's direction. With gathering resentment over what is being viewed as a taxpayer financing of bankers' greed (a viewpoint with which I only concur in small part) and renewed declines in the equity markets on Monday morning, it remains to be seen if there is a shift back in the other direction as today's surveys begin to be reflected in tomorrow's numbers. I would think that if they do, we won't really see it until Wednesday or Thursday.

Additionally, Obama seems to score additional points when the McCain campaign is recorded saying something mindbogglingly stupid or transparently mendacious; they managed to avoid that particular Scylla and Charybdis over the weekend (or at least nobody watches the news on weekends during football season), and McCain's numbers climb slightly as a result. Finally, I would suggest that pretty much everything this week is noise until the first debate Friday night.

lindsayin72

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Sunday September 21, 2008 · 10:51 AM PDT

2008/09/21 · 10:51

Complete for today's releases from the four daily polls, which I think is the only way to do this properly, despite the fact that it would be a few hours later than those which only have the early morning releases and yesterday's from the others. This is my first daily update that includes polling done on a Saturday, so I'm not sure if the fact that the news cycle is slower makes the polls a little softer; I hope not, given that they're three-day running totals. A fractional dropoff in R2K, a one point move towards McCain in Gallup, stability in Diageo and Rasmussen. All in all, nothing that looks more than random noise right now, but let's see what happens over the course of a few days.

So away we go....

Diageo/Hotline Obama 45 McCain 44 (45-44)
Gallup Obama 49 McCain 45 (50-44)
R2K Obama 49 McCain 42 (50-42)
Rasmussen Obama 48 McCain 47 (48-47)

lindsayin72

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Saturday September 20, 2008 · 11:52 AM PDT

2008/09/20 · 11:52

A more or less qualitative look at daily polling; people like Nate Silver do an admirable job at the more quantitative aspects, so another voice from the statistics textbooks is really not needed. I've been sending this out to a growing email list for the last week or so, and someone had the clever idea (that I was not clever enough to think of first) of posting it here, so I'm going to give that a try and see how it works out. In a bit of a hurry, so formatting will be a little lacking today. Also, just to get off on the wrong foot, I've commented that I don't particularly agree with the Party ID and ethnicity weightings in the R2K/Kos survey, but also that I disagree with Party ID in Rasmussen as well in the other direction. I'll keep posting this for a few days if anyone cares. And if you do, let me know, happy to put you on the mailing list for it.

lindsayin72

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Friday August 29, 2008 · 7:08 PM PDT

2008/08/29 · 19:08

Just a little rant to those of you whom I hoped might be somewhat inclined to appreciate it, though it'd probably be improved by a second round of fact-checking. Ultimately what we have is the first ever trophy veep, or John McCain's third wife. As an Obama voter, I'm digging this big time. Let 'em gush now, let her debate Joe Biden with the ethics investigations swirling over her head later...

lindsayin72

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Tuesday August 12, 2008 · 6:03 AM PDT

2008/08/12 · 06:03

There's a primary today. It's a nuisance, top to bottom, pitting a candidate who has been vetted every which way and fervently supported by every legitimate body in the district and state against a person who has been trying to pre-empt and subvert the process at every turn and who espouses views that in many cases are very little short of bizarre, and whose personality has been described in similar words (and worse). So why should it even matter that people show up and vote for Jim Himes today?

lindsayin72

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Friday July 25, 2008 · 10:44 AM PDT

2008/07/25 · 10:44

Forgive the "yeah, we know" nature of some of this; crossposted from my blog on myspace where this was actually news to an alarming number of people. I'm sure everyone here knows this already but I was having a slow day.

Anybody notice the McCain campaign stop the other day where he was touring a supermarket to show how the man who claimed to know nothing about the economy (until he claimed he didn't claim that) was so concerned with food prices?

Well, anybody notice where he stopped to talk for the cameras? Was it in front of the meat? Bread? Rice? Corn? Uh, no.

He was interviewed standing in front of the dairy section, particularly the part containing the CHEESE. Yes, cheese. Processed, dyed, individually wrapped slices of bland, nutritionally-valid but comically-charged American CHEESE.

Dewd, don't you have a single advance man who could have situated you in a slightly less comic part of the store? The only thing inherently funnier if he'd been standing in front of the bologna.

Poll

54 votes Show Results

Which do you prefer?

54 votes Vote Now!

Which do you prefer?

Cheez

17 votes

Fudge

19 votes

Fudge flavored cheez

10 votes

Cheez flavored fudge

8 votes

OK, so let me get this straight, Keating 5 Dept.

lindsayin72

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Tuesday June 10, 2008 · 4:09 AM PDT

2008/06/10 · 04:09

So Jim Johnson, from Sen. Obama's VP search committee, is the subject of a Wall Street Journal article suggesting that he got below market average loans from Countrywide with the direct support of its ethically-challenged CEO Angelo Mozilo under an unofficial program not readily available through your local mortgage broker (unless your local mortgage broker is Angelo Mozilo). Well, yeah, perhaps a little distasteful, especially given Johnson had been CEO of Fannie Mae prior to this and was therefore the biggest buyer of mortgages. Unsurprisingly, the Obama campaign called the foofaraw "overblown and irrelevant." Speaking as a strong Obama supporter and long-time professional watcher of banking markets, this could possibly smell a bit, though in fairness I'd point out that anyone in a position to take out $7 million in mortgages had damn well better have an above-average FICO score.

That being said, sublime irony below the fold.

lindsayin72

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Monday May 12, 2008 · 6:56 PM PDT

2008/05/12 · 18:56

Note: This is a significantly expanded version of a comment I made on another diary; in other words, it's not just deja vu.

It's been a shame to see Chris Shays' metamorphosis over the years from Weicker-like independent liberal Republican to typical GOP hawk (pronounced "hack"), as for the most part his principal identification with the administration has been on the war and homeland security issues, while remaining semi-independent on others, though to a lessening degree over time.

Unfortunately, those are the ones that matter, and the fact that Shays
has always been too moderate to be acceptable to the core of the GOP anyway does not bode well for his own party's support this November, despite the fact that this district has voted Democratic only seven times since 1895.

lindsayin72

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Tuesday February 12, 2008 · 10:03 AM PST

2008/02/12 · 10:03

This started in response to some posts I've seen by people slashing at any rumored potential VP hopeful with a single statement or vote somewhere they unilaterally deemed insufficiently progressive for their (and by extension America's) tastes. Well, you're likely to be disappointed on that score if (as I deeply hope, in the interests of full disclosure) Obama gets the nomination. The last thing he needs is a running mate with utterly faultless progressive credentials. He needs someone solid, plodding, stolid, even, dare I say it, on the dullish side; fortunately the Democratic Party is just the place to find them. And don't worry about an attack dog, Barack seems to have bought Ronald Reagan's teflon on ebay.

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