Interpreting Polls: A Refresher Course on Causality

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 23, 2008 · 7:36 AM PST

2008/11/23 · 07:36

I've been meaning to write about this for a while, but in the craziness of the election it seemed like it would get stampeded by more pressing concerns. We owe an enormous debt to folks like Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com for helping us understand what's going on in when new polls come in and how to interpret them in the broader context of the totality of polls.

One aspect that's been missed, and I believe is critical, is understanding the direction of causality in respondents' answers to questions after the topline numbers.

Poll

28 votes Show Results

People's Opinons on the Gas Tax Holiday were

28 votes Vote Now!

People's Opinons on the Gas Tax Holiday were

A function of their pre-existing beliefs and values

9 votes

A function of which candidate they supported

16 votes

I don't take tests on weekends!

3 votes

Sign me up: What can ordinary Americans do to help the economy

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday November 09, 2008 · 7:52 PM PST

2008/11/09 · 19:52

Robert Reich, one of Bill Clinton's two Bobs (the other being Robert Rubin), is a member of Obama's Economic Transition team, and the author of an article over at TPMcafe.

Reich argues that government spending will be necessary to bump the country out of its "mini-depression" because consumers, investors, and trade won't do the trick by itself. I have no disagreements on principle, and you should go read the article, it's interesting, but I want to know what the ordinary consumer can do to help.

Poll

42 votes Show Results

The US taxpayers consumption habits

42 votes Vote Now!

The US taxpayers consumption habits

Can make very little difference in the economy

3 votes

Can make some difference at the margins

8 votes

Can make a lot of difference if they are properly directed

31 votes

Will Enthusiasm Sustain People in Line?

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday November 04, 2008 · 12:19 PM PST

2008/11/04 · 12:19

This, to me, is an interesting empirical question, and could make a huge difference in the election, particularly in close states, but also in the popular vote margins.

Are people who are less enthusiastic about their candidate more likely to leave the polling station when the line is long?

Poll

47 votes Show Results

Voter enthusiasm:

47 votes Vote Now!

Voter enthusiasm:

Makes no difference

2 votes

Makes the same slight difference regardless of line length

2 votes

Makes a slightly bigger difference when lines are long

12 votes

Makes a much bigger difference when lines are long

26 votes

Makes the same big difference regardless of line length

5 votes

"There's a place in hell reserved for women who don't support other women"

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday October 06, 2008 · 7:06 AM PDT

2008/10/06 · 07:06

Here's an idea for an ad:

Sarah Palin, on the stump outside Los Angeles the other day, quoted former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright saying: "There's a place in hell reserved for women who don't support other women."

Here's the video:

Let's explain to Governor Palin and her running mate John McCain, what supporting women really means.

Poll

109 votes Show Results

Who really supports women?

109 votes Vote Now!

Who really supports women?

Obama-Biden

107 votes

McCain-Palin

0 votes

Tie

2 votes

Jed's new video: Obama right: McCain was wrong

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday September 27, 2008 · 6:46 AM PDT

2008/09/27 · 06:46

Jed (of JedReport fame) has a new video at the Huffington post, it's just over a minute long and shows Obama's line from the debate yesterday articulating all the points on which McCain was wrong about Iraq, and then illustrating each one with video. Short, sweet, effective.

Video and Digg link below

The viraler the better :)

http://digg.com/...

Poll

110 votes Show Results

McCain on Iraq

110 votes Vote Now!

McCain on Iraq

Wrong.

44 votes

Wrong.

6 votes

Wrong.

20 votes

Wrong.

30 votes

The surge is working!!!1!

10 votes

Huckabee Factcheck: Not even close

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday September 03, 2008 · 6:54 PM PDT

2008/09/03 · 18:54

Mike Huckabee made the claim during his RNC speech this evening that Sarah Palin received more votes for mayor of Wasilla than Joe Biden got for President. Assuming that he only meant this time around, let's do a fact check.

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday September 01, 2008 · 4:22 PM PDT

2008/09/01 · 16:22

One of the most comforting aspects of this year's election season is that for the first time in a long time, when I worry about the day-to-day events on the campaign trail, I have the comfort of knowing that my candidate's campaign is fully competent, fully prepared, and has a clear strategy going forward -- so that even when I worry, I know the campaign is in good hands.

On that note of comfort, my question is: are we seeing a repeat of the pattern we saw in the primaries where the more people get to know Obama the more they like him? Follow me after the jump for my brilliant insight :)

Poll

42 votes Show Results

Following the conventions and debates people will

42 votes Vote Now!

Following the conventions and debates people will

Not change their views of either Obama or McCain

5 votes

Like both Obama and McCain more

3 votes

Like Obama more and McCain less

25 votes

Like Obama less and McCain more

7 votes

Like both Obama and McCain less

0 votes

Other?

2 votes

My Party Unity Ad

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday August 27, 2008 · 3:45 PM PDT

2008/08/27 · 15:45

Since adding my 2 cents will take us to $653080.34.

What my ad would look like:

Poll

13 votes Show Results

The Obama campaign should run a Hillary ad

13 votes Vote Now!

The Obama campaign should run a Hillary ad

yes

12 votes

0 votes

maybe

1 vote

"Christmas" Eve Math Open Thread

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday May 19, 2008 · 11:50 PM PDT

2008/05/19 · 23:50

'Twas the night before Oregon and Kentucky (?!) and all through DKos
Not a creature was stirring, not even a (wireless) mouse...

So, night owls, what does the math look like at the end of the day tomorrow? I'll attempt a preliminary sketch based on the estimates I'm able to amass and everyone can feel to update and correct me, as well as prognosticate how things will turn out tomorrow.

Poll

61 votes Show Results

How will Tuesday turn out?

61 votes Vote Now!

How will Tuesday turn out?

As soon as Obama wins the pledged vote, the SDs will take him over 2025

11 votes

The supers will take him over 2025 sometime in the next week

22 votes

He will make it 2025 on June 3rd when the voting ends

13 votes

He will make it 2025 after June 3rd

4 votes

None of the above, Hillary Clinton will win

1 vote

The rules committee will meet May 31st and change the math, so who cares?!?!

10 votes

John McCain: Maverick

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday May 18, 2008 · 4:40 PM PDT

2008/05/18 · 16:40

One of the things I respect the most about Barack Obama is the courage he shows in treating the American people like adults, capable of understanding thoughts that can't be summarized in a single phrase. At the same time, campaigns can be won and lost by the narratives attached to a candidate and the shape these narratives take is often dictated precisely by vacuous phrases like "appeaser", "flip-flopper", and "maverick".

I think that McCain's maverick label is his only lifeline. If he can make maverick stick in the minds of voters it will distance him from the Bush administration, make him look like a man of integrity, and give people who are fed up with Republican rule, but hesitant about Democrats the reason they need to vote for him. That's why we need a persistent attack on the maverick image that will destroy it in the eyes of the American voter: we have more than enough ammunition to do it.

title=

Poll

28 votes Show Results

The John McCain "Maverick" image

28 votes Vote Now!

The John McCain "Maverick" image

Will be a source of strength for McCain's campaign

4 votes

Can be turned into his greatest weakness

23 votes

Other

1 vote

Virginia superdelegate flips to Obama

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 07, 2008 · 1:35 PM PDT

2008/05/07 · 13:35

File this under Beginning of the End: One of the four superdelegates that pledged their support to Obama today was Virginia DNC member Jennifer McClellan, who flipped, after having been a declared Hillary supporter.

nussbaumski

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday April 23, 2008 · 12:14 PM PDT

2008/04/23 · 12:14

I'm really curious what has happened to the Daily Kos readership over the course of primary season. It's pretty clear that we tipped over to Obama's side pretty heavily, and then there was the "strike". So I was just wondering who's still here -- is it all Obama all the time? Are there Hillary lurkers? How many people are sick of primary season -- and of those, who's still here posting on non-primary topics and who has left?

Poll

83 votes Show Results

I am:

83 votes Vote Now!

I am:

An Obama supporter tired of any and all pro-Clintonarguments

43 votes

An Obama supporter who would vote for Clinton vs. McCain

32 votes

An Obama supporter because I just want this thing to be over

4 votes

A Clinton supporter who continues to post regularly

0 votes

A Clinton supporter who posts, but little if any on the primary

0 votes

A Clinton supporter, but just a lurker

0 votes

Relatively indifferent to the primary, posting on other topics

2 votes

Other: see you in the comments

2 votes

Newer
Older

RSS

Interpreting Polls: A Refresher Course on Causality

Sign me up: What can ordinary Americans do to help the economy

Will Enthusiasm Sustain People in Line?

"There's a place in hell reserved for women who don't support other women"

Jed's new video: Obama right: McCain was wrong

Huckabee Factcheck: Not even close

Going in opposite directions?

My Party Unity Ad

"Christmas" Eve Math Open Thread

John McCain: Maverick

Virginia superdelegate flips to Obama

Knock knock! Who's here?