One of the most comforting aspects of this year's election season is that for the first time in a long time, when I worry about the day-to-day events on the campaign trail, I have the comfort of knowing that my candidate's campaign is fully competent, fully prepared, and has a clear strategy going forward -- so that even when I worry, I know the campaign is in good hands.
On that note of comfort, my question is: are we seeing a repeat of the pattern we saw in the primaries where the more people get to know Obama the more they like him? Follow me after the jump for my brilliant insight :)
The pollson the front page are good news. Obama seems to have gotten a bounce, which is nice, although bounces are called bounces because they go up and then come back down. What jumped out at me though, was this comment:
Eisinger cautions, "The Republicans haven't yet had their convention and John McCain will be exposed to a large segment of the population as well" with their convention this week.
The conventions are, for many people, the first time they really tune into the details of the election and vet the candidates for themselves. By all indications, the Democratic Convention was very well received and Obama's speech went over great. Now it's McCain's turn...
Correct me if I'm wrong -- the American public already knows John McCain. If not before, then his 2000 run for President cast the national spotlight on him, and he's not a stranger to most Americans. My point is (biased though it may be) he's got nowhere to go but down. He had the "Maverick" persona all sowed up, and the press in his back pocket spreading the word -- but since 2000, he's become increasingly less Mavericky to the point where he's flipped on nearly every issue that made him out as a Maverick in the first place.
So -- my claim here is -- as people get to really know the candidates, through the conventions, and particularly through the debates, they'll be moving in opposite directions. People will become increasingly comfortable with Obama as they are exposed to him. And, if the Obama campaign plays its cards right, they'll become increasingly disenchanted with McSame.
McCain seems to have already hit his ceiling at around 42-45%. If he can't break through that, he's got no hope(TM).
The Obama campaign, so far, has mostly gone after McCain for voting with Bush 90% of the time. This can effectively undermine the Maverick image, especially conveyed in the right way (see the ad by our own cartwrightdale.
Personally, I'd prefer they go at him more directly -- like John Kerry did at the convention. Make him own his sycophantic flip flops. And yet the Obama campaign is going the indirect route -- I learned a long time ago not to worry about that. They're smarter than me and they've got it covered.