The Sabato 7 revisited

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Saturday October 11, 2008 · 7:59 AM PDT

2008/10/11 · 07:59

Last month when Professor Larry Sabato spoke to my school, he said that he would be watching the following toss-up states: NH, PA, VA, OH, MI, CO, and NV. These states would determine who would win the election.

In his latest Crystal Ball update, Sabato has a new map of toss-up states: FL, NC, VA, OH, and MO. This is BAD NEWS for McPalin and the GOP.

What happened to NH, PA, MI, CO, and NV? All are now leaning/likely Obama. For the first time, Larry Sabato has put Barack Obama over 270 EVs.

orangedem

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Tuesday September 23, 2008 · 8:40 AM PDT

2008/09/23 · 08:40

Professor Larry Sabato gave a presentation at my school last night, and according to his analysis (polling, interviews with voters, and historical voting patterns), the US presidential race has boiled down to seven tossup states:

NH, PA, VA, OH, MI, CO, and NV.

His current EV count: Obama 243, McCain 227.

orangedem

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Monday April 14, 2008 · 8:56 AM PDT

2008/04/14 · 08:56

When I was a Fulbright exchange teacher in Norway, I read the Guardian Weekly and discovered my favorite commentator on American political life, Gary Younge. His perspective is always refreshingly honest and pointedly leftist. I couldn't always agree with his point of view, but I always learned something from his columns.

Younge's latest column The US needs to talk about class continues a series he's done on the US presidential election campaign. He's been traveling around the country writing about the voters and issues. The Guardian site also has audio/video of these interviews. In today's column Younge focuses on the demise of Uniontown, PA. His argument: until we start talking about class, we're not talking about the right issue.

orangedem

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Friday March 21, 2008 · 8:40 AM PDT

2008/03/21 · 08:40

I've always enjoyed reading and listening to UVA's political guru Larry Sabato. He does exhaustive surveys; he's witty and urbane; and his analyses cut both sides of the political aisle. His latest newsletter "The Crapshoot of Presidential Politics" makes a few interesting points.

First he says HRC's "Big State" argument is a red-herring.

Any Democrat is going to carry CA, NY, NJ, and probably PA.

Sabato also says that Obama is not going to carry any southern states--with the possible exception of VA--that he won in the Democratic primary, nor will he carry any of the Midwest and Mountain states. Finally he opines that there's only two swings states in play, OH and CO. His reasoning? Barely 1/2 of the anticipated GE voters participate in the primary and caucus season.

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The Sabato 7 revisited

The Sabato 7

Gary Younge: Let's talk about class, America

Latest from Sabato: Don't trust Primary voting?