Professor Larry Sabato gave a presentation at my school last night, and according to his analysis (polling, interviews with voters, and historical voting patterns), the US presidential race has boiled down to seven tossup states:
NH, PA, VA, OH, MI, CO, and NV.
His current EV count: Obama 243, McCain 227.
I don't know if he has posted this map on his website at Center for Politics
In the talk Sabato showed his keys to victory for both candidates. He was surprisingly critical of the Obama campaign for being "off message" about the economy, while praising the message discipline of the McCain camp. Obama, says Sabato, must continue to link McCain with Bush and not let McCain recast himself as an Independent. The problem as Sabato sees it: Obama has yet to connect with independent voters. "In this Democratic year, [Obama] should be further ahead," says Sabato.
Sabato expects about 1%-3% "racial leakage" in the Obama vote, meaning that this many white voters will tell pollsters they are voting for Obama, but in the booth their "social values" will take over, and they'll vote for McCain.
He also said if VA goes early for Obama, we call all go to bed. The race is over. He had the same advice to everyone if McCain carries PA or MI.
In the Congressional races, Sabato predicts Dems will pick up 4 - 6 US Senate seats and 9 -15 US House seats. He expects McCain to use this "fact" in future campaign stops to offer himself as a "check" on Democratic power, a point Sabato says has great appeal to Independents.
Finally the Prof elicited some strong response from the crowd with his scenario of how Nancy Pelosi can become "acting President."