As Al Giordano at The Field explains, in PA it really comes down to the delegate math problem. Giordano predicted back on March 12th a 59/44 split of pledged congressonal district delegates in favor of Clinton.
But things are changing quite rapidly, and it's still too early to assess the impact of:
(1) Casey's endorsement of Obama
(2) The Casey/Obama bus trip together from Pittsburgh to Philly
(3) Clinton's loss of credibility because of Tuzla, NAFTA, Ireland
(4) Leahy's call to Clinton to withdraw
(5) Backwash from rich spoiled donor threat to Pelosi
So let’s take a look at the "starting picture" based on Giordano's predictions, qualified by jlkenney’s informative preliminary analysis of the PA congressional districts from March 6.
I've put together some cartograms (schematic maps where the area of district reflects the number of delegates it has) to illustrate what is at stake where. Since the geographically huge central PA districts have many fewer delegates than the geographically tiny urban and suburban districts, the cartogram gives a clearer picture of the balance of strength.
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