Double Disolution Down Under and Health Care

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Monday March 15, 2010 · 4:44 PM PDT

2010/03/15 · 16:44

This diary on the Australian health care system mentioned a thing called a "double disolution" as a key to how universal health care got passed here in 1974. I thought I'd quickly explain.

Our founders came up with a nifty safely valve. Namely, that if the Senate is being seriously obstructionist the whole Senate can be sent out to face re-election at 6 weeks notice. Fun huh?

robertbe

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Monday August 31, 2009 · 5:53 PM PDT

2009/08/31 · 17:53

This diary is partly in response to this post by Andrew Sullivan where he uses the phrase "Late Empires" and wonders if Obama is a kind of test of whether American is in the throes of late empire decay.

I've been worrying along similar lines lately, especially in view of the madness of the health care fracas. We in Australia view the prospect of an American decline with consternation. Not least because a lot of our formative decades as a nation took place amidst the flying debris of another empire in decline, the British. It conentrates the mind no end to think on this question, if Obama should fail, what then?

robertbe

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Sunday August 23, 2009 · 4:31 PM PDT

2009/08/23 · 16:31

You've got to love Nate Silver and the other folks at fivethirtyeight.com. They keep digging out lumps of clarity whilst every one else is flinging mud and going stark staring ape droppings.

They've cast some historical light on why a small group of fearmongers are beating up a sitting White House & Congress in the Health Care debate. See this great piece by Tom Schaller which links to another great piece by Scott McLemee about the similarities between today's right wing propagandists and the "Agitators" of the 1930s depression.

Recommended reading, and it turns out, this fresh new hell is neither fresh nor new.

robertbe

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Saturday August 01, 2009 · 4:22 PM PDT

2009/08/01 · 16:22

I never entirely got my head around Obama's decision to go with Joe Biden, and I kind of like the guy, but it's clear he's not successor material, and Obama knew that when he picked him.

So, I can't help but wonder. Does it make sense to go to the 2012 election with a non-successor in tow? Is 2012 an opportunity to change to a real successor and line up 2016? Plus, if Joe keeps tripping over his mouth at his current rate, prudence demands a contingency plan. If it was me, I'd be tempted. Besides it's Sunday and I'm bored and pissed off with Joe.

So, if not Joe then who?

Poll

136 votes Show Results

Who would you pick as a second term VP to set up succession?

136 votes Vote Now!

Who would you pick as a second term VP to set up succession?

Kathleen Sebelius

8 votes

Janet Napolitano

1 vote

Hillary

27 votes

More Joe

19 votes

Robert Gates

2 votes

Jim Webb

10 votes

Kirsten Gillibrand

3 votes

Somebody younger

9 votes

Somebody older

0 votes

Pass an amendment and pick Jennifer Granholm

2 votes

Pass an amendment and pick Arnie

0 votes

Sarah Palin

6 votes

Todd Palin

1 vote

Rex the Wonder Dog

1 vote

You've got to be kidding with this crap

47 votes

A Few Thoughts from Universal Coverage Land

robertbe

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Sunday July 26, 2009 · 4:46 PM PDT

2009/07/26 · 16:46

Watching the US health care debate from 10,000 miles away in Australia has been fascinating as well as frustrating.

I have friends in the US, UK and Canada and when we all compare our lives one thing that stands out about the US experience is the stress levels that come from worries about health insurance and health care.

I wish very much to see my US friends relieved of this stress. I guess our experience here with universal coverage and single payer might be useful but at this point in the debate seems a bit like walking into a tank battle with a cheery message printed on a ballon. Anyhoo..

robertbe

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Tuesday August 12, 2008 · 5:55 PM PDT

2008/08/12 · 17:55

A quick couple of links to Joshua Green's excellent work over at the Atlantic Monthly postgaming the Hillary campaign from original sources, along with a few brief thoughts on the important and relevant (to the general election) things we can learn by comparing Hillary's adventures with Barack and his campaign.

robertbe

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Thursday July 10, 2008 · 6:40 PM PDT

2008/07/10 · 18:40

I had an idea for a show....

No, just kidding.

I had an idea for an extended sporting metaphor (because we don't have enough of those) for Obama's campaign and the media's attempts to cover and understand it.

It comes down to this. The media's appetites and habits are tuned in to the big hit, the home run, as the key metaphor for election contests, with a 24 hour attention span. Obama is a pitcher, progressively building a winning season over many months.

robertbe

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Thursday June 05, 2008 · 7:58 PM PDT

2008/06/05 · 19:58

Now that the nomination is sewn up, and everyone is acting like they knew it all along, there has been the predictable flood of media pieces looking at Senator Obama's campaign and leadership style and asking (some in tones of bewilderment) how did he do it? Some examples out of many include Time's redoubtable Karen Tumulty, and Michael Powell in the NYT.

It's been fascinating to see how the media narrative is adjusting to a reality for which they were ill prepared. It's also fascinating and enormously encouraging to see the very direct realtionship between Barack's leadership style and the manner of his victory.

robertbe

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Tuesday April 29, 2008 · 11:59 PM PDT

2008/04/29 · 23:59

I'm making an attempt here to think through the realistic scenarios for the election moving foward from here. Here being after Rev Wright went to the Press Club and after Barack Obama's news conference throwing the Reverend under a bus. I'm doing this more than anything as a way of getting my thoughts in order in this scary moment. I thought others might find it handy to have a list of possibile scenarios written down.

The point of scenario planning is not to make predictions but rather to think through what's possible and start thinking about "what we would do if". I have no idea what's most likely to happen. Nobody does. The best we can do is try and be at least a little prepared.

robertbe

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Sunday April 20, 2008 · 6:57 PM PDT

2008/04/20 · 18:57

I did this with Super Tuesday and a few folks tuned in so I thought we should try it again for the PA primary. I think it is interesting to see how the Kos community fares at prediction. It goes to whether the networks we are plugged into are more or less connected to the real voter.

Poll

289 votes Show Results

Your prediction of the PA Primary margin is ...

289 votes Vote Now!

Your prediction of the PA Primary margin is ...

The polls are all wimps. Hillary by more than 20

7 votes

SUSA are the business. Hillary by 14

76 votes

The average has it. Hillary by 6

112 votes

It closing up. Hillary by 2

21 votes

The polls don't get the folks right. Obama by 2

47 votes

It's a miracle. Obama by more than 5

10 votes

Pie

2 votes

Frankly, I don't get the whole pie thing

7 votes

I wish you stop annoying us with these pointless polls

7 votes

What's your delegate prediction ? (Poll)

robertbe

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Sunday February 03, 2008 · 1:54 PM PST

2008/02/03 · 13:54

Now that we have post South Carolina and post Edwards polling from several places we can get serious (OK amateurish) about playing the post Super Tuesday delegate count game.

The polls are coming in quickly now and the doubts and questions about their competence and honesty are coming in even faster around the blogiverse ( and not just from Obama supporters trying to keep calm). The bookies are ready to take your bet. Can you beat the pollsters?

This is a follow up to my previous post which uses the same methods. If you want to know more about my figuring have a look there. This time I've added in specific numbers for Georgia and Illinois.

Poll

148 votes Show Results

What do you think the delegate count will be on Wednsday morning (including pre ST delegates)?

148 votes Vote Now!

What do you think the delegate count will be on Wednsday morning (including pre ST delegates)?

The polls are crazy : Clinton 1000+ Obama < 800

14 votes

The early polls are a better guide : Clinton 950+ Obama < 850

24 votes

The latest polls are on the money : 900 ish each

49 votes

The latest polls are undercooked : Clinton < 850 Obama 950+

30 votes

The surge is so on, and it's big : Clinton <800 Obama 1000+

20 votes

It doesn't matter : McCain will win in November

3 votes

I wish you nerds wouldn't bother me with this crap

8 votes

Delegate Math

robertbe

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday January 31, 2008 · 8:20 PM PST

2008/01/31 · 20:20

Post South Carolina, a quick run through of the delegate numbers in play in the weeks ahead and some projections of what Obama would need to do on Super Tuesday and beyond to get ahead of Clinton.

It's going to be quite a ride. It will be fascinating to see how it comes out. The most likely scenario remains a brokered convention. About which nobody knows anything much.

Warning. Some math may be encountered along the way.

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RSS

Double Disolution Down Under and Health Care

Obama as a Test of Late Empire

Nate and Friends on Asymetry & Health Care Debate

Some Pointless VP Speculation

A Few Thoughts from Universal Coverage Land

Hillary Campaign Postgame Lessons

Dear Media : You're missing the pitcher

Cool Leadership

What Comes Next? Possible Campaign Scenarios.

Pennsylvania. What's your prediction?

What's your delegate prediction ? (Poll)

Delegate Math