I'm making an attempt here to think through the realistic scenarios for the election moving foward from here. Here being after Rev Wright went to the Press Club and after Barack Obama's news conference throwing the Reverend under a bus. I'm doing this more than anything as a way of getting my thoughts in order in this scary moment. I thought others might find it handy to have a list of possibile scenarios written down.
The point of scenario planning is not to make predictions but rather to think through what's possible and start thinking about "what we would do if". I have no idea what's most likely to happen. Nobody does. The best we can do is try and be at least a little prepared.
So in reverse order of fearfulness for Obama supporters here is my best guess at the possible scenarios.
- Wright's Been and Gone and Done It
The Rev Wright's bomb throwing completely guts Obama's electoral support. Hillary wins North Carolina narrowly and Indiana, Kentucky and West Virgina by 20-30 points. Obama's national polling collapes and consistently puts him 10-20 points behind McCain. The Democratic leadership and a majority of super-delegates decide Obama is unelectable and hand Hillary the nomination.
Consequences? On current polling Hillary would likely go on to win in November. In the light of a complete collapse of the Obama campaign her negativity to date would come off as good judgement. A pervasive sense of lost opportunities and general despair would break out on the left of the party. Low Democratic turn out might lead to lacklustre downticket results. A very Centrist adminstration would emerge dogged by critics from the both left and right.
- The NightMare Dead Heat, Supers Pick Hillary
Wright's damage is enough to leave Obama short of a clear delegate majority and enough super-delegates nervous enough about his electability to leave the nomination up in the air. After much hand wringing the super-delegates vote for Hillary in spite of Obama being narrowly ahead in pledged delegates.
Consequences? Horrible destruction breaks out in the party. Obama is lobbied to run a third party campaign but declines. Hillary might well lose in November, handing McCain a narrow victory. McCain would then be a narrowly elected Republican president with small Democratic majorities in both houses and nothing would get done for 4 years.
- The NightMare Dead Heat, Supers Pick Obama
Wright's damage is enough to leave Obama short of a clear delegate majority and enough super-delegates nervous enough about his electability to leave the nomination up in the air. After much hand wringing the super-delegates vote for Obama endorsing the pledged delegate result.
Consequences? Medium to serious destruction breaks out in the party. Hillary is lobbied to run a third party campaign but declines. Obama might well lose in November, handing McCain a narrow victory. McCain would then be a narrowly elected Republican president with small Democratic majorities in both houses and nothing would get done for 4 years.
- Obama Survives and Wins Nomination Fair and Square
Obama manages to get past the bumps in the road, wins North Carolina handily and Indiana narrowly and the super delegates fall in line giving him the nomination in early June.
Consequences. Deep resentment from the DLC branch of the party but general party unity. The result in November would be unpredictable in this scenario. Anything would be possible from a narrow McCain win through to a smashing Obama victory.
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So, what's all this telling us? Basically, what we already knew. That a clearly credible nominee is to be much preferred over a brokered dead heat and the opportunties for the future are greater and more open if Obama is nominee.
For Obama supporters the choice is clear. We need to go out there and win, and clearly win. We're going to need to really want it and it's going to be hard work all the way to the White House.